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Kenya raises $2 bln Eurobond but concerns over deficit linger

22 February 2018 Comments (0) Actualites, Africa, Economy, Infrastructure, Politics

NAIROBI (Reuters) – Kenya shook off a downgrade and the loss of access to an IMF standby credit facility to raise a $2 billion dollar bond at competitive yields, but market participants said on Thursday it still needs a credible plan to tackle its fiscal deficit.

Kenya received $14 billion worth of bids. It took just $1 billion in a 10-year note with a yield of 7.25 percent, and another $1 billion in a 30-year tranche with a yield of 8.25 percent, Thomson Reuters news and market analysis service IFR reported.

“They were in line with the yield curve,” said a fixed income trader in Nairobi.

The eventual yield reflected a tightening of the initial pricing area by about 30 basis points. It was close to the comparative yields for other African sovereigns like Nigeria, the trader said.

Last week, credit ratings agency Moody’s downgraded Kenya’s debt rating to B2 from B1 while officials were in the middle of the bond roadshow abroad, angering the government.

More bad news emerged on Tuesday, after the International Monetary Fund said it had frozen Kenya’s access to a $1.5 billion standby facility last June, after failure to agree on fiscal consolidation and delay in completing a review.

“They (the government) were able to weather the knocks of the Moody’s downgrade and the IMF issue,” said Aly Khan Satchu, a Nairobi-based independent trader and analyst.

But he warned that the government needed to convince investors it has a plan to tackle the fiscal deficit.

“People are worried about debt-to-GDP ratios and they want to see a stronger language about how this will be addressed,” he said.

Kenya’s total debt is about 50 percent of GDP, up from 42 percent in 2013. It has borrowed locally and abroad to build infrastructure like a new railway line from Nairobi to the port of Mombasa.

The finance ministry has published a plan to lower its fiscal deficit to 7 percent of GDP at the end of this fiscal year in June, from 8.9 percent in 2016/17, and to less than 5 percent in three years’ time.

Satchu said it was not enough for investors. They want to see more targeted infrastructure investments that will ensure a return, and attempts to reign in a ballooning public service wage bill and other recurrent expenditure.

“We have got to walk the talk. We are not even talking the talk yet,” he said.

 

(By Duncan Miriri. Editing by Katharine Houreld and Toby Chopra)

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IMF: Kenya’s $1.5 bln standby credit in place, but not accessible

21 February 2018 Comments (0) Actualites, Africa, Economy

NAIROBI (Reuters) – Kenya’s $1.5 bln standby credit facility remains in place until the end of March 2018, but the country cannot access it because conditions have not been met, the International Monetary Fund said on Wednesday, clarifying comments given a day earlier.

“The precautionary… arrangement remains in place until end-March 2018,” the IMF said in a statement.

“Kenya continues to have access to resources since June subject to policy understandings to complete the outstanding reviews.”

On Tuesday, Jan Mikkelsen, IMF representative in Kenya, told Reuters that access to the two-year precautionary facility was lost in June because a review had not been completed due to Kenya’s extended election season.

The two-year precautionary facility, set to expire next month, was put in place in case of unforeseen external shocks that could put pressure on Kenya’s balance of payments.

The East African economy has not tapped the facility, which was preceded by a smaller standby one-year credit line in 2015, as foreign exchange reserves held by the central bank have soared to record highs.

 

CONCERNS OVER DEBT

“The facility is in place but permission to access it has been withdrawn,” said Kenyan economist Anzetse Were. “This comes at a bad time… we’ve seen Moody’s downgrade us to B2 from B1, and this is particularly important in the context of Kenya trying to raise a Eurobond.”

Senior government officials have just finished a marketing roadshow abroad, and they plan to issue dollar-denominated notes for a minimum of $1.5 billion soon.

The IMF has expressed concern over the fiscal deficit, but government officials have said borrowing is necessary to fund the government’s ambitious infrastructure plans, which were a key plank of President Uhuru Kenyatta’s successful re-election campaign.

Kenya’s total debt has risen to about 50 percent of GDP, from 42 percent in 2013, as it borrowed locally and abroad to build infrastructure like a new railway line from Nairobi to the port of Mombasa.

When Kenya secured the precautionary facility, IMF officials said it was recognition of the country’s stable economic fundamentals, as that type of facility is usually reserved for more developed emerging economies.

 

By Duncan Miriri

(Writing by Katharine Houreld; Editing by Simon Cameron-Moore)

 

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