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Nigeria’s Dangote shifts focus from cement to oil and gas

Comments (0) Africa, Business, Latest Updates from Reuters

LAGOS (Reuters) – Africa’s richest man, Aliko Dangote, plans to launch Nigeria’s first private crude oil refinery by 2019 while almost doubling his cement production on the continent by adding plants in eight countries as he shrugs off a regional economic downturn.

Dangote told Reuters the $12 billion refinery would have a capacity of 650,000 barrels a day, cornering the market in Africa’s most populous country, where fuel shortages are a perennial problem.

Until recently, Nigeria was Africa’s biggest crude oil producer but it imports 80 percent of its fuel because poor maintenance means its four refineries never reach full output. Its current daily consumption is 260,000 barrels, according to the International Energy Agency.

A slump in commodity prices has hammered Nigeria’s economy – along with many others on the continent – and raised the cost of borrowing but Dangote, whose business empire stretches from cement to flour and pasta, is pushing hard into oil and gas.

“It will be ready in the first quarter of 2019,” the billionaire founder of Dangote Cement said of the refinery. “Mechanical completion will be end of 2018 but we will start producing in 2019.”

Dangote said the plant, which will include a $2 billion fertilizer unit, was being funded through “loans, export credit agencies and our own equity”.

Some $3.25 billion had come from local and foreign banks, while the central bank had also chipped in. The IFC, the private sector arm of the World Bank, has lent $150 million.

Dangote also has plans for a gas pipeline through West Africa. Nigeria has the world’s ninth largest proven gas reserves, at 187 trillion cubic feet (tcf), but loses half of it to flaring and re-injection.

Despite the new focus on oil and gas, the business magnate said he planned to build cement plants in Cameroon, Ethiopia, Kenya, Mali, Niger, Nigeria, Senegal and Zambia by 2018. Another plant will open in Congo Republic by September, he added.

A cement plant in Ivory Coast would triple output to 3 million tonnes, up from an initial target of 1 million, he said, while two new plants in Nigeria would add 6 million tonnes annually.

“As at now, what we have in operation is almost about 45 million tonnes, so we have just another 40 million tonnes to go,” he said, affirming an Africa-wide production target of 85 million tonnes a year by 2018.

 

FX CRISIS

The collapse in oil prices has hit Nigerian companies hard, with many unable to access dollars due to central bank foreign exchange restrictions imposed to prop up the naira.

The worst-affected have gone to the wall or shed large numbers of staff, but a study by Reuters of an 11-week period in March to May showed that Dangote firms managed to secure a healthy share of dollars at the cheap official rate. [nL4N19E3JX]

Dangote said the $161 million bought during that period from the central bank merely reflected the size of his business and did not represent preferential treatment.

“We have been badly affected like any other company,” he said, arguing that operational costs totalled $100 million each month due to recurring expenses such as the purchase of parts for cement production and running a fleet of 9,000 trucks.

“When you are talking about 20 billion dollars worth of projects, what is 161 million? One-hundred-and-sixty-one million dollars is my six weeks’ need,” he said.

Dangote’s sugar refinery in Nigeria had reduced capacity by 15 percent as a result of the dollar crisis. “We ended up owing a lot of dollars,” he said.

This week, the central bank removed the peg that has held the naira at the official rate of 197 for the last 16 months, leading to a 30 percent devaluation as the currency traded freely on the interbank market.

Dangote said the decline had pushed up costs. [nL8N19F31Y]

“This devaluation alone, we have lost over 50 billion naira ($176 million),” he said.

“The gas, which is our main source of power, is priced in dollars. If there is 40 percent devaluation, your price will go up by 40 percent. Every single aspect of the production will go up by that percentage,” he said.

Dangote also said he was eyeing a listing on the London stock exchange “within the next year or two”.

($1 = 284.1500 naira)

 

(By Alexis Akwagyiram. Editing by Ulf Laessing and Ed Cropley)

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Zimbabwe to import 250,000 tonnes of maize from Mexico

Comments (0) Africa, Business, Latest Updates from Reuters

HARARE (Reuters) – Drought-hit Zimbabwean will import more than 250,000 tonnes of maize from Mexico to fill the shortfall caused by the severe drought sweeping through the southern Africa, the agriculture minister said on Thursday.

Joseph Made said Zimbabwe would also import the staple crop from neighbours South Africa and Zambia, as well as from the Ukraine but did not give precise figures for these imports.

“We anticipate anyway upwards of 250,000 tonnes will be coming from Mexico. The other maize will obviously be coming from Zambia as well some from South Africa and Ukraine,” Made told reporters.

An El Nino-induced drought has hit southern Africa, slashing the output of the staple maize crop.

Zimbabwe’s government previously said the drought forced it to cut the 2015 growth forecast to 1.5 percent from 3.2 percent, with the 2016 output unlikely to be any better.

The U.N. World Food Programme said earlier in June that output in Zimbabwe would fall below 60 percent of the five-year average of between 700,000 and 1 million tonnes.

 

(Reporting by MacDonald Dzirutwe; Writing by Mfuneko Toyana; Editing by James Macharia)

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South African black lobby disappointed by MTN’s new white CEO

Comments (0) Africa, Latest Updates from Reuters, Politics

JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) – South Africa’s Black Management Forum (BMF) said it was disappointed by the appointment of white South African Rob Shuter as MTN Group’s new CEO and viewed it as a serious blow to giving blacks a larger role in business.

The forum, which lobbies for black rights, criticised the mobile phone operator’s decision saying it was retrogressive to plans for the inclusion of blacks in corporate boardrooms in Africa’s most industrialised country.

Shuter was named on Monday as the replacement for Sifiso Dabengwa, a black executive who resigned last November after Nigeria imposed a fine on MTN for failing to deactivate more than five million unregistered SIM cards.

“There is a general unwillingness for transformation at top management level which has resulted in the decline in the number of black South African CEOs,” BMF President Mncane Mthunzi said in a statement. “These companies are owned by the public and yet they don’t reflect the demographics of our society.”

MTN spokesman Chris Maroleng had no immediate comment but said the company would respond later via an emailed statement.

Founded with the government’s help after the end of apartheid in 1994, MTN has been touted as one of South Africa’s biggest corporate success stories with operations in more than 20 countries in the Middle East and Africa.

Since coming to power at the end of white minority rule, the African National Congress party has pushed for change in the complexion of the civil service, the military and state-owned firms, as well national sports teams and private businesses.

The push has helped many South Africans who were excluded from the mainstream economy under apartheid and created a solid black middle class.

MTN executive Phuthuma Nhleko, also black, was appointed interim executive chairman following Dabengwa’s resignation, with an eye to renegotiating the Nigerian fine which was initially set at $5.2 billion.

In the end, MTN agreed this month to pay a 330 billion naira fine ($1.2 billion) and to list its local business on the Nigerian Stock Exchange. MTN is the largest mobile phone operator in Nigeria with 62 million subscribers and the country accounts for about a third of its revenue.

Nhleko will revert to his role as non-executive chairman when Shuter starts as CEO, which is expected to be by July next year at the latest. Shuter, who has a background in risk management, will be joining MTN from rival mobile operator Vodafone, where he is currently head of Vodafone Europe.

($1 = 283.0000 naira)

 

(Reporting by Tanisha Heiberg; editing by James Macharia and David Clarke)

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South Africa’s Eskom raises wage offer to union to 7%: NUM

Comments (0) Africa, Business, Latest Updates from Reuters

JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) – South African power utility Eskom has raised its wage offer to 7 percent from 5.75 in negotiations with workers, the National Union of Mineworkers (NUM) spokesman said on Wednesday.

“NUM is going to seek a mandate from its members about Eskom’s latest offer, then we will respond to the management,” Livhuwani Mammburu said. The offer was still below NUM’s demand of a 15 percent increase for the least-paid workers.

The utility employs over 42,000 people with NUM representing more than 14,000 of workers.

 

(Reporting by Tanisha Heiberg; Editing by James Macharia)

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Investors cheer Nigeria currency float but won’t rush back yet

Comments (0) Africa, Business, Latest Updates from Reuters

LONDON (Reuters) – Nigeria’s swift one-step move to a floating currency has been welcomed by investors but most nonetheless will stay away until Africa’s biggest economy shows signs of recovering from damage inflicted by the 16-month old exchange rate peg.

Nigeria this week finally ditched the peg that had throttled foreign exchange markets, led to widespread capital flight and caused its first quarterly economic contraction since the 1990s.

Investors, local businesses and international lenders had called for a devaluation for months as the government burned through hard currency reserves to preserve the naira after a steep oil price tumble tore apart its finances.

But while investors welcomed the float as the right first step, most plan to watch Nigeria from the sidelines anticipating more pain in store.

“It is positive, it is a more credible and flexible exchange rate regime in the long-run, you will see an external rebalancing of the economy, a fiscal adjustment and so on,” said Jonas David, emerging market specialist at UBS Wealth Management in Zurich.

“But in the near term, things will get worse before they get better.”

A slide into recession after the economy shrank in the first quarter of the year and a fresh spike in inflation are among issues investors will want to wait out, said David, together with confirmation that the new regime is functioning properly.

Once that happens, focus will shift to fundamentals such as returning the economy to growth – key for a country of 180 million where some 46 percent live in poverty.

Inflation too is running at the highest in more than six years – it hit 15.6 percent in May – already above the central bank’s 12 percent interest rate.

The currency devaluation is likely to push inflation north of 20 percent in the second half of the year, meaning authorities will need to ramp up interest rates if they want to lure back foreign money to bond markets.

“Right now you have negative real interest rates, so investors will not be enamoured with buying Nigerian bonds given where inflation is or where it is headed,” said Kevin Daly at Aberdeen Asset Management. “You need (a yield) somewhere between 15-20 percent to make this attractive.”

 

TUMBLING AND SOARING

Foreigners held $5.4 billion of Nigerian bonds in September 2013 but dumped most of them after the country was ejected last year from JPMorgan’s GBI-EM index – the most widely used emerging debt benchmark.

A country cut from the index needs to wait at least 12 months before re-inclusion.

But the bond market’s size, liquidity and turnover all made it attractive to foreign investors, said Samir Gadio, Head of Africa Strategy FICC Research at Standard Chartered Bank, noting that Lagos’ $150 million daily turnover was next only to South Africa’s on the continent.

Nigeria’s bourse has avoided the same fate, as index provider MSCI has retained it in its frontier equity indexes with a sizeable 12.4 percent weight. But local stock exchange data shows foreigners’ share dealings are down 66 percent from a year earlier.

While the market has surged about 8 percent this month in anticipation of foreigners’ return, fund managers, eyeing an ominous combination of rampant inflation and slowing growth, may not rush back.

Africa’s biggest oil exporter saw its economy shrink by 0.36 percent – its worst performance in a quarter of a century – and economists predict the contraction deepened in the second quarter due to fuel and FX shortages.

“It will be at least 12 months before we see any green shoots,” said Yvonne Mhango, Sub-Saharan Africa Economist at Renaissance Capital in Johannesburg. “The pain has to cut in full through the economy.”

An average naira rate of 270 per dollar this year implies a fall in Nigeria’s dollar GDP to $400 billion from $481 billion in 2015, Renaissance Capital estimates.

All this is set to hit the local population and firms hard, but foreign companies operating in Nigeria have also suffered. Brewer Heineken for instance reported that consumers had been shifting to cheaper brands.

“(Naira devaluation) will lead to a consumer recession, a collapse in profits in companies,” said Robert Marshall-Lee, investment director at Newton Investment Management.

While Marshall-Lee predicts an “ugly market” for the next couple of years, he says stronger companies such as Guinness Nigeria, Nigerian Breweries or lenders Zenith Bank and Guaranty Trust Bank will probably weather the storm.

“When we see the market pricing the new reality and the stocks de-rate to reflect the new profit base, we will let that shake out happen. It might well over-correct which will give us an opportunity to buy.”

 

(By Karin Strohecker. Additional reporting by Sujata Rao in London and Chijioke Ohuocha in Lagos)

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South Africa’s rand steady, caution prevails ahead of British referendum

Comments (0) Africa, Business, Latest Updates from Reuters

JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) – South Africa’s rand pulled back from seven week highs against the dollar on Wednesday, with traders and analysts expecting caution to prevail on the eve of a British referendum on whether to remain in the European Union.

Domestic economic headlines have taken a backseat in moving the currency this week, although inflation data due out at 0800 GMT could boost it slightly if higher than expected, raising the prospect of higher interest rates this year.

At 0653 GMT the rand traded at 14.7290 to the dollar, not far off its previous close at 14.7350.

It was however down about 10 cents from Tuesday’s high of 14.6225, the rand’s strongest level since May 4 which came on the back of a rise in risk appetite as investors bet on Britain staying in the EU after Thursday’s vote.

“Optimism in financial markets ahead of the UK referendum has tempered ahead of the vote tomorrow,” Standard Bank said in a note.

Government bonds edged higher in early trade, with the yield for debt due in 2026 dipping 2 basis points to 8.97 percent.

The stock market’s Top-40 futures index was up 0.26 percent, signalling a slightly firmer start for the bourse at 0700 GMT.

 

(Reporting by Stella Mapenzauswa; Editing by Tiisetso Motsoeneng)

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Nigeria stocks near 8-month high on investor interest after FX float

Comments (0) Africa, Business, Latest Updates from Reuters

LAGOS (Reuters) – Nigerian stocks ended near an 8-month high on Tuesday as investors renewed interest in shares after the central bank floated the naira to lift currency curbs viewed as harming investment and helping cause the economy to contract.

The main share index rose 2.27 percent to 29,422 points, a level last seen on October 2015.

Investors snapped up shares across banks, and consumer goods, hoping that a “freely” traded interbank forex market will help foreign buyers return to stocks after Nigeria ended an currency peg, which caused them to flee.

 

(Reporting by Chijioke Ohuocha)

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South Africa’s Amplats warns H1 profit to fall at least 20%

Comments (0) Africa, Business, Latest Updates from Reuters

JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) – Anglo American Platinum (Amplats) expects its half-year profit to fall by at least 20 percent due to weaker metal prices, the South African miner said on Tuesday.

Platinum prices have been hurt by growth concerns in China and oversupply worries which have forced firms to abandon projects and sell mines.

Amplats, which produces around 40 percent of the world’s platinum group metals, said it would make a further announcement once it had determined a likely range for its headline earnings per share.

Headline EPS, which strips out certain one-off items, is the main profit measure in South Africa.

Shares in Amplats were little changed at 379.09 rand, largely in line with the blue-chip JSE Top-40 index.

Amplats, a unit of global mining group Anglo American, is focusing on newer and more mechanised mines and removing unprofitable ounces following a record five-month strike in 2014.

Amplats, along with rivals Impala Platinum and Lonmin, is due to start wage talks with unions at the end of June, when the current deal expires.

The National Union of Mineworkers will demand pay increases of 20 percent per year for the next two years while demands from the larger Association of Mineworkers and Construction Union are not yet known.

 

(Reporting by Tiisetso Motsoeneng; editing by Jason Neely)

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Kenya’s NIC Bank appointed to assess assets of closed Imperial Bank

Comments (0) Africa, Business, Latest Updates from Reuters

NAIROBI (Reuters) – Kenya’s NIC Bank has been appointed as a consultant to assess the assets and liabilities of Imperial Bank, which was put into receivership in October after fraud was uncovered, the central bank said on Tuesday.

The appointment of NIC Bank, a mid-tier bank, would ensure customers receive more of their deposits after the closed bank’s shareholders failed to support a proposal for swiftly reopening Imperial, the central bank said in a statement.

Three small or medium-sized banks in Kenya have been closed in less than a year, unnerving investors. The central bank has said financial issues were specific to the banks concerned and did not pose a systemic risk to the economy of the East African nation, which is a regional financial centre.

Earlier this year, the central bank said clients with deposits of up to 1 million shillings ($9,886.31) would receive funds in full, while those with larger deposits would have to wait for investigations to end to determine the fate of their funds.

NIC, appointed by state receiver Kenya Deposit Insurance Corporation (KDIC), would oversee disbursement of a maximum of 1.5 million shillings to remaining depositors once a court rules, likely on July 4, to lift the suspension of payments.

More deposit payments could be made after that following the completion of due diligence by NIC, which would assume a portion of the remaining deposits and other assets and liabilities, including a majority of Imperial’s staff and branches.

Central Bank of Kenya Governor Patrick Njoroge told a news conference that NIC was not acquiring Imperial Bank, and also said a moratorium on new bank licences remained in place.

 

($1 = 101.1500 Kenyan shillings)

 

(Reporting by George Obulutsa; Writing by Edmund Blair; Editing by Louise Heavens)

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Nigerian naira tumbles 30 percent after peg removed

Comments (0) Africa, Business, Latest Updates from Reuters

By Chijioke Ohuocha and Oludare Mayowa

LAGOS (Reuters) – Nigeria’s naira slumped 30 percent against the dollar on Monday after the central bank removed its currency peg in an effort to alleviate the chronic foreign currency shortages choking growth in Africa’s biggest economy.

The central bank sold $530 million for 280 naira per dollar at a special auction and later sold a further $86.5 million directly on the interbank market at 281 to 285 naira, traders said.

Monday’s rate was notably weaker than the 197 peg the central bank had maintained for 16 months before abandoning it last week in a bid to alleviate chronic forex shortages and stop the economy from sliding into recession.

The naira had traded just twice by midday, before the central bank held its special auction to clear a backlog of hard currency orders. Less than $1 million had changed hands, prompting an extension of the trading day to 5 p.m. (1600 GMT), dealers said.

Black market currency dealers were quoting the naira at 325 to 345 naira to the dollar, up to 10 percent stronger than on Friday, on expectations more hard currency liquidity on the interbank market would reduce demand on the street.

The central bank has said it may inject foreign exchange into the interbank market to increase liquidity and reduce a backlog of $4 billion backlog of demand, which could take four weeks to clear.

“We suspect that the best way to talk about the new exchange rate regime is still as a managed float, but a managed float that is responsive to market forces,” Citi analysts said in a note. “The new structure does provide a platform for the CBN (central bank) to easily step further away from the market.”

Non-deliverable forwards – contracts used to bet on future exchange rate moves – priced the naira at 302 per dollar in one month’s time. They initially weakened to a record 310 to the dollar.

The two-month contract < NGN2MNDFOR=> saw the naira at 313 per dollar in August. One year down the line < NGN1YNDFOR=> the naira was priced at 355.

Nigeria’s central bank is “reasonably optimistic” the naira will settle around 250 to the dollar after an initial period of weakness following a flotation, the bank’s governor said in a June 3 letter to President Muhammadu Buhari [L8N19836T].

ECONOMIC DOWNTURN

Foreign investors and economists had called for a naira devaluation for months as the shortages of foreign exchange undermined economic growth and led to widespread capital flight.

The central bank said last week it would abandon the peg in a “managed float”. The median forecast from 10 analysts surveyed by Reuters had suggested the naira might trade on Monday at as much as 300 naira per dollar.

Nigeria’s economy, which contracted by 0.4 percent in the first quarter, faces its worst crisis in decades as a result of the decline in oil prices since 2014 and last year’s introduction of the currency peg.

With the naira expected to fall sharply, Nigerian products will become relatively cheap and imports more expensive. That should stimulate the domestic economy, but it is also likely to light a fire under already rising inflation.

“The new system should reduce the shortage of FX in the economy and – in the long run – reduce strains in the balance of payments by discouraging imports and boosting export competitiveness,” said John Ashbourne of Capital Economics.

“But the new system certainly does not mark the end of Nigeria’s economic problems.”

The OPEC oil exporter had resisted devaluing the naira for more than a year, while other major oil producers, including Russia, Kazakhstan and Angola, allowed their currencies to fall after crude prices collapsed.

(Additional reporting by Oludare Mayowa, Ulf Laessing, Karin Strohecker, Sujata Rao and Joe Brock; Writing by Joe Brock and Ulf Laessing; Editing by Larry King)

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