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Gold holds near six-week peak on safe-haven demand

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By Swati Verma

BENGALURU (Reuters) – Gold on Wednesday held near a six-week high hit in the previous session, with economic and political uncertainty boosting its safe-haven appeal.

Markets were waiting for indications on policy from U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s first news conference since the U.S. elections, due later in the day.

“The markets are myopic. There are immediate concerns over the global economy, at least in the first half of the year,” said Barnabas Gan, an analyst at OCBC Bank in Singapore.

He added that focus was on events such as Britain’s exit from the European Union, French elections in April and the impact of Trump’s trade policies when he takes up his post in the White House later this month.

Spot gold was up 0.1 percent at $1,188.86 an ounce by 0630 GMT. Bullion, often seen as an alternative investment during times of political and financial uncertainty, on Tuesday reached its highest level since Nov. 30 at $1,190.46.

U.S. gold futures gained 0.3 percent to $1,188.70 per ounce.

“Greater than usual market sensitivity to Trump’s comments and actions may persist until the market becomes used to him in office. This could take several months. Thus gold prices may be more volatile than usual,” said James Steel, chief metals analyst for HSBC Securities in New York.

“In addition to U.S. dollar weakness, the gold rally has depended on a pullback in U.S. bond yields and some moderation in equity gains.”

The greenback has lost some of its momentum against other currencies, while U.S. bond yields have fallen considerably from two-year highs touched in mid-December. [USD/] [US/]

Gold is highly sensitive to rising U.S. interest rates, which increase the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding asset while boosting the dollar, in which it is priced.

The outlook for U.S. rates may become a little clearer when Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen appears at a webcast town hall meeting with educators on Thursday.

“With the impending inauguration of President-elect Donald Trump and possible safe-haven flows related to that, seasonal Chinese demand and a stalling equity rally and bond sell-off, January so far is poised to be another good month for the yellow metal,” said Alex Thorndike, senior precious metals dealer at MKS PAMP Group.

Reuters technical analyst Wang Tao expects spot gold to rise to $1,210 per ounce as it has broken above resistance at $1,172.

Among other precious metals, silver was down 0.2 percent at $16.76 an ounce, after gaining more than 1 percent in the previous session, when it hit its highest in nearly four weeks.

Platinum declined up to 0.4 percent to $974.10, and palladium dropped as much as 0.3 percent to $762.22 an ounce.

 

(Additional reporting by Nallur Sethuraman in Bengaluru; Editing by Joseph Radford and Sherry Jacob-Phillips)

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Egypt’s cost-of-living soars as currency dives

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By Asma Alsharif

CAIRO (Reuters) – Annual consumer price inflation in Egypt’s cities soared to a second straight eight-year high in December, hitting 23.3 percent on the back of the government’s decision to float the pound, effectively halving its value.

Core inflation also jumped to 25.86 percent in the urban areas, the official CAPMAS statistics agency said on Tuesday.

Urban consumer inflation hit an eight-year high of 19.4 percent in November, the month when Egypt abandoned its currency peg of 8.8 to the U.S. dollar in a dramatic move that has since seen the currency depreciate roughly by half.

It accompanied the Nov. 3 move with a 300 basis point interest rate hike to fight inflationary pressures.

Despite the hike, however, inflation has risen sharply and is expected to climb further this year as the government pushes on with economic reforms, including fuel subsidy cuts and the implementation of a value-added tax.

Those moves were required to secure a $12 billion International Monetary Fund loan.

In cities and towns, food and beverage inflation touched 28.3 percent in December. Healthcare inflation stood at 32.9 percent while transportation was 23.2 percent.

“Egypt now is in the eye of the policy restructuring cycle, and the price is higher inflation and an overall fiscal deficit pending a structural change in government spending and general re-pricing of goods and services,” Arqaam Capital said in a research note.

“A reversal of over 50 years of comprehensive government support will take time,” it said, predicting inflation to remain high in the first half of the year, averaging 20 percent in 2016/17 before declining to 18 percent in 2017/18.

President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi is under increasing pressure to revive the economy, keep prices under control and create jobs to avoid a backlash from the public.

Sisi predicted last month that the Egyptian pound would strengthen in the coming months and promised to ensure basics were available and affordable.

The government has expanded its social security network and some 70 million Egyptians have access to state subsidised bread.

But Egypt’s non-oil business activity shrank for the 15th consecutive month in December as inflation caused purchase costs to rise at a near-record pace.

Economists expect the rising inflation to erode spending power, hit economic growth and prompt further hikes to interest rates, which are already up to 15.75 percent.

Egypt’s central bank has held interest rates steady at two monetary policy meetings since the flotation and some economists expect further rate hikes this year.

The monetary policy committee is due to meet again on Feb. 16.

 

(Reporting by Asma Alsharif; Editing by Himani Sarkar and Sunil Nair/Jeremy Gaunt)

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IMF warns Tanzania of downside economic growth risks

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DAR ES SALAAM (Reuters) – The International Monetary Fund has warned Tanzania that the country’s economic policies threaten its forecast for growth in fiscal year 2016/17 (July-June) of around 7 percent.   President John Magufuli promised when he was elected last year to reform an economy hobbled by red tape and corruption and begin a programme to develop public infrastructure.   But the IMF said progress has been slow and lack of public spending is curtailing liquidity.   “There are risks that could adversely affect economic growth going forward, arising from the currently tight stance of macroeconomic policies, the slow pace of credit growth that may become protracted, slow implementation of public investment, and private sector uncertainty about the government’s new economic strategies,” the IMF said late on Monday in its latest review.   Tanzania projects growth of 7.2 percent for 2016, up from 7.0 percent in 2015, led by mining, telecoms, construction and financial services.    “Monetary policy should be eased to address the tight liquidity situation and support credit to the private sector,” said the IMF.    Tanzania’s economy grew 6.2 percent in the third quarter of 2016, compared with 6.3 percent in the same quarter of 2015.

 

(Reporting by Fumbuka Ng’wanakilala; Editing by George Obulutsa, Larry King)

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Mauritius tourist arrivals climb 11 pct in 2016: stats office

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PORT LOUIS (Reuters) – Visitor numbers to Mauritius rose 11 percent in 2016 compared with the previous year, driven by more arrivals from Europe, official data showed on Tuesday.

The central bank said in November it expected tourism earnings in 2016 to be around 56.6 billion rupees ($1.58 billion).

Statistics Mauritius said arrivals rose to 1.28 million from 1.15 million in 2015. Numbers from Europe, which accounts for two third of visitors, climbed 16 percent to 734,506.

Tourism is an important component of the Mauritian economy and a key source of hard currency for the Indian Ocean island state, best known for its luxury spas and beaches.

The statistics office said in November it expects tourist arrivals to increase 4.3 percent this year to 1.3 million while the Bank of Mauritius forecast earnings of 59 billion rupees for the same period.

($1 = 35.7500 Mauritius rupees)

 

(Reporting by Jean Paul Arouff; editing by George Obulutsa)

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Egypt’s annual urban consumer price inflation jumps to 23.3 pct in December

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CAIRO (Reuters) – Egypt’s annual urban consumer price inflation jumped for a second month in December to 23.3 percent from 19.4 percent in November, the official CAPMAS statistics agency said on Tuesday.

Egypt abandoned its currency peg to the U.S. dollar on Nov.3 in a dramatic move that has since seen the currency depreciate roughly by half.

 

(Reporting by Asma Alsharif; Editing by Himani Sarkar)

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South Africa’s net foreign reserves fall to $40.809 bln in Dec

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JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) – South Africa’s net foreign reserves fell to $40.809 billion in December from $41.077 billion in November, the Reserve Bank said on Monday.

Gross reserves rose to $47.356 billion from $47.043 billion, the central bank’s data showed.

The forward position, which represents the central bank’s unsettled or swap transactions, fell to $1.771 billion in December from $2.412 billion in the previous month.

 

(Reporting by Olivia Kumwenda-Mtambo; Editing by Himani Sarkar)

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Zimbabwe’s largest bank CBZ suspends local use of Visa cards

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HARARE (Reuters) – Zimbabwe’s biggest banking group CBZ Holdings has suspended the use of Visa cards for local transactions due to high costs and cash shortages, its chief executive officer said on Monday.

The Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe last November introduced a “bond note” currency to ease chronic cash shortages, but long queues have remained at banks, which have continued to impose stringent limits on cash withdrawals.

Nyevero Nyemudzo said CBZ clients should from Jan. 15 use local cards only valid in Zimbabwe and reserve Visa cards for online purchases and when travelling abroad.

“We have told our clients it is cheaper for them because the charges by Visa are very high and that is compelling enough for out clients to restrict the use of the Visa card,” Nyevero said.

Zimbabwean businesses, including mines, are struggling to make payments for foreign imports due to the cash shortages.

The central bank says it has to date released $79 million in bond notes, which it has hailed as a success.

 

(Reporting by MacDonald Dzirutwe; Editing by Joe Brock)

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Ghana’s new president to name investment banker as finance minister

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By Kwasi Kpodo

ACCRA (Reuters) – Ghana President Nana Akufo-Addo is likely to name investment banker Ken Ofori-Atta as finance minister, three sources close to the presidency told Reuters on Sunday.

Akufo-Addo defeated incumbent president John Dramani Mahama in elections last month and assumed office on Saturday, pledging to cut taxes to boost the ailing economy while protecting the public purse.

Ofori-Atta, 57 and co-founder of the Africa-wide investment banking group Databank Group, was Akufo-Addo’s nominee to assess the health of the economy during the transition period after the election.

Ghana which exports cocoa, gold and oil is halfway through a three-year $918 million aid deal with the International Monetary Fund to restore fiscal balance to an economy dogged by slumping growth, high deficit and public debt.

“Ken has the credentials of a successful economist and the president is set to name him as finance minister … he’s the guy to steer the economy out of the current challenges,” said one aide with direct knowledge of the decision.

The announcement could come early this week, another aide said.

“The new president is in a hurry to hit the ground running with the economy because there are expectations to meet,” he said.

A graduate of Yale and Columbia universities, Ofori-Atta previously worked with Wall Street investment bank Salomon Brothers and Morgan Stanley on debt and equity management.

He co-founded Databank in 1990 and was its executive chairman until February 2012.

Akufo-Addo has named his former rival Alan Kyerematen as nominee for the trade ministry and Albert Kan-Dapaah, a former Energy minister, as minister for national security.

 

(Reporting by Kwasi Kpodo; Editing by Edward McAllister and Stephen Powell)

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Angola cuts oil production after OPEC agreement

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LUANDA (Reuters) – Angolan state oil company Sonangol has cut output by 78,000 barrels per day to (bpd) to 1.673 million bpd as part of an OPEC agreement to lower supply from Jan. 1, it said in a statement late on Friday.

 

(Reporting by Herculano Coroado; Writing by Olivia Kumwenda-Mtambo; Editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman)

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Nigerian sovereign fund in credit tie-up to unlock infrastructure funding

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By Claire Milhench

LONDON (Reuters) – Nigeria’s sovereign wealth fund is setting up a company in partnership with London-based local currency guarantee firm GuarantCo to enable pension funds to invest in Nigerian infrastructure bonds, its chief executive said on Thursday.

The new business will be launched in a few weeks’ time and aims to overcome some of the challenges facing the financing of infrastructure projects in Africa’s most populous nation.

“The company will provide enhancements for infrastructure bonds, and we believe this will make an effective platform for Nigerian pension funds to invest in them,” said Uche Orji, chief executive of the Nigeria Sovereign Investment Authority (NSIA), which has some $1.25 billion under management.

GuarantCo facilitates infrastructure development in low income countries by providing credit guarantees denominated in local currency to financial institutions and bond investors. It is funded by Britain, Switzerland, Sweden, the Netherlands and Australia, and specialises in frontier market infrastructure.

Poor infrastructure and access to capital is a major bottleneck to growth in Nigeria, and the government has identified infrastructure investment as a major priority.

Unlocking fresh sources of capital will help, with Nigeria’s pension fund assets at $26.4 billion at December 2015, according to data from Nigeria’s National Pension Commission.

Orji said that currently, when municipalities want to issue bonds to fund infrastructure projects, most pension funds won’t buy them because the credit rating of the issuer isn’t strong enough.

The new venture will provide a form of monoline insurance, giving a guarantee and allowing pension funds and insurance companies to invest. “The NSIA cannot give guarantees by itself, so we have created a company that can do this,” he explained.

The tie-up is the latest in a series of partnerships for the NSIA. In August it announced agreements with Old Mutual Investment Group and UFF Agri-Fund to establish two funds to invest in real estate and agriculture respectively.

Orji said these could make their first investments in the first quarter of 2017.

The Agri-Fund aims to improve Nigeria’s food security and is seeking investments in farms, storage and irrigation infrastructure for everything from arable crops to dairy farming and fish farming.

“That is more advanced in terms of being able to make an investment, and the first quarter is likely to be very busy,” Orji said.

The real estate fund is targeting commercial property such as offices, hospitality, logistics and industrial parks.

The NSIA also signed a strategic partnership agreement with its Moroccan peer, Ithmar Capital, to co-operate on bilateral investments.

These include a Trans-African gas pipeline which it is envisaged will support the creation of industrial hubs. Orji said this was an ambitious project but it would be cheaper and more effective than trying to build LNG facilities across Africa to export Nigeria’s gas.

With a recovery in the oil price in late 2016, and a better macro environment, Orji expects further injections into the NSIA in 2017 following 2016’s $250 million additional funding.

“There’s been a strong commitment shown by the administration in continuing to support the fund, and even in 2016, as difficult as it was with the oil price, there was still an injection,” he said.

 

(Editing by Hugh Lawson)

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