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South Africa’s economy slows further, ratings eyed

1 March 2016 Comments (0) Africa, Business, Latest Updates from Reuters

PRETORIA (Reuters) – Disappointing economic growth in South Africa at the end of 2015 is likely to heighten fears its credit rating will be cut to “junk” and further unnerve investors concerned about President Jacob Zuma’s handling of the economy.

Data from Statistics South Africa on Tuesday showed the continent’s most industrialised economy expanded 0.6 percent in the final quarter, slowing slightly from the previous three months as the agricultural and manufacturing sectors shrank. Economists polled by Reuters had expected a rise of 0.8 percent.

“With all expectations that 2016 will be weaker still, this signals decelerating growth momentum in South Africa for three consecutive years, highlighting some of the long-standing concerns of the ratings agencies,” said Standard Chartered’s head of Africa research, Razia Khan.

The rand nevertheless rose 1 percent against the dollar, tracking other emerging market currencies higher as uncertainty over the pace of further U.S. interest rate hikes tempers the dollar’s momentum.

Credit rating agencies have said South Africa is at risk of a downgrade that could take it below investment grade.

The Treasury has warned such a move could trigger a sharp reversal of foreign capital flows on which South Africa relies to finance its huge current account deficit and precipitate a recession.

Fitch and Standard & Poor’s currently rate South Africa BBB-, one notch above “junk”, while Moody’s assigns a slightly higher Baa2 grade.

On a year-on-year basis, the economy grew 0.6 percent from 1 percent in October to December compared with a Reuters poll forecast of 0.4 percent.

More sluggishness is expected in 2016 as a severe drought persists and global demand for South African exports including gold and other metals remains depressed.

The government forecasts growth of 0.9 percent this year compared with an estimated 1.3 percent in 2015, which would be the lowest rate of expansion since South Africa emerged from a recession in 2009.

 

NERVOUS

Investors are also nervous about economic policymaking after Zuma’s sudden firing in December of finance minister Nhlanhla Nene in favour of a relatively unknown lawmaker precipitated a plunge in the rand and other South African assets.

To halt the sell-off, Zuma brought back Pravin Gordhan as his third finance minister in a week, but recent media reports have suggested a rift between the president and Gordhan, who won investors’ respect during a previous stint in the job.

Gordhan outlined an austere budget last week that was aimed at avoiding credit rating downgrades but which failed to reassure investors.

Zuma, who faces his second no-confidence vote in a year on Tuesday over what the opposition Democratic Alliance called his reckless handling of the economy, has denied he and Gordhan are at war.

Highlighting the economy’s weakness, separate data on Tuesday showed new vehicle sales fell by 8.1 percent year-on-year in February, their third consecutive monthly contraction.

Electricity prices could also drag on growth after the energy regulator allowed state-owned power firm Eskom to raise tariffs by 9.4 percent in the 2016/17.

“These data make it less likely that the Reserve Bank will follow up January’s 50 basis points interest rate hike with another rate rise this month, despite the deteriorating inflation outlook,” Capital Economics analysts said in a note.

The South African Reserve Bank has been hiking interest rates to tame rising inflation, despite weak growth.

The bank will announce its second interest rate decision of 2016 on March 17.

 

(By Olivia Kumwenda-Mtambo. Editing by James Macharia and Catherine Evans)

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South Africa’s Vodacom drops Neotel deal on regulatory hurdles

1 March 2016 Comments (0) Africa, Business, Latest Updates from Reuters

JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) – South Africa mobile operator Vodacom on Monday dropped a planned acquisition of local fixed line operator Neotel, citing regulatory complexities.

“It is disappointing that we have reached this conclusion despite all our efforts to find a way to deal with the complexities of the restructured transaction,” said Vodacom Chief Executive Shameel Joosub.

Vodacom, a unit of Britain’s Vodafone, had offered $500 million to Neotel owner, India’s Tata Communications, in 2014 but was forced to rework it after regulators raised anti-trust issues.

Under the modified deal, announced in December, Vodacom would have bought assets related to Neotel’s fixed-line business but not its frequency spectrum – which the Competition Commission’s said would have given Vodacom an unfair advantage in rolling out a high-speed 4G network.

South Africa is in the midst of switching its television signal to digital from analogue, a move that would free up much-needed airwaves as consumers increasingly use smartphones to browse the internet and download applications.

 

(Reporting by TJ Strydom; Editing by Tiisetso Motsoeneng and Joe Brock)

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South African rand recovers as Zuma says not at war with finmin

29 February 2016 Comments (0) Africa, Business, Latest Updates from Reuters

JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) – South Africa’s rand firmed against the dollar on Monday after President Jacob Zuma said he was not at war with Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan, following media reports of a fallout.

The currency fell nearly 4 percent on Friday, its biggest daily loss since 2011, after Gordhan said there were attempts to discredit him and the integrity of the Treasury.

Gordhan’s statement followed a newspaper report which quoted sources as saying he had threatened to resign after receiving a letter from the elite Hawks police unit questioning his knowledge of a suspected rogue unit at the revenue service.

This followed media reports of a clash between Gordhan and the head of the South African Revenue Service (SARS).

The Hawks also said they were not investigating Gordhan, and there was no case against the minister.

“The media has incorrectly reported, among other things, that there is a war at SARS and that the President and the Minister of Finance are somehow at war. This is a total fabrication and mischievous sensationalism,” the presidency said in a statement.

“The President wishes to emphasise that Minister Gordhan remains the Minister of Finance and any positing that the position of the Minister is under any threat is dismissed with the contempt it deserves.”

As of 1344 GMT, the rand had firmed 1.45 percent to 15.9260 versus the dollar from Friday’s close of 16.1600.

Government bonds also recovered. The yield on the benchmark instrument due in 2026, which soared as much as 28 basis points in early trade, was up 4.5 basis points to 9.41 percent as of 1434 GMT.

“It is a case of correction following knee jerk selling on Friday. The markets will continue to keep a close eye on narrative and look for further confirmation Gordhan will be allowed to do his job,” NKC African Economics economist Bart Stemmet said.

On the stock market, both the Top-40 index and the broader All-share were largely unchanged.

Barclays Africa Group Ltd fell as much 6 percent when the market opened, and traded 5 percent lower after Barclays Plc said on Sunday its board was evaluating strategic options in relation to its shareholding in its African business.

($1 = 16.0379 rand)

 

(By Olivia Kumwenda-Mtambo. Additional reporting by Stella Mapenzauswa and Nqobile Dludla; Writing by James Macharia, editing by Ed Osmond)

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Kenya’s inflation falls, may pave way for easing of rates

29 February 2016 Comments (0) Africa, Business, Latest Updates from Reuters

NAIROBI (Reuters) – Kenya’s year-on-year inflation rate slowed to 6.84 percent in February, the statistics office said on Monday, prompting at least one analyst to say the central bank could start easing rates gradually.

February’s rate is the lowest since October last year, when it stood at 6.72 percent, the statistics office said.

Razia Khan, head of research for Africa at Standard Chartered in London, said this supported the case for policymakers to start lowering costs of credit later this year.

“While lower global oil prices have clearly helped, we nonetheless expect the CBK (Central Bank of Kenya) to enact a moderate pace of easing, paying careful attention to continued foreign exchange stability in the process,” she said.

The statistics office added the fall was driven by a -0.43 percent monthly drop in the price of food, which has the biggest weighting in the basket of goods used to measure inflation.

“This resulted from notable decreases in prices of key food items which slightly outweighed the increases,” the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics said in a statement.

Prices of housing and transport also came down on a monthly basis, the bureau said.

The governor of the central bank Patrick Njoroge told Reuters in December he expected inflation to be contained within the government’s preferred band of 2.5-7.5 percent.

 

(Reporting by Duncan Miriri; Editing by Janet Lawrence)

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Rwandan economic growth to slow to 6.8% in 2016

26 February 2016 Comments (0) Africa, Business, Latest Updates from Reuters

KIGALI (Reuters) – Rwanda’s economic growth rate will ease to 6.8 percent in 2016 from 7.1 percent in 2015, the World Bank said on Friday, noting the slow implementation of the country’s budget.

Rwanda maintained “steady growth and macroeconomic stability” for much of 2015, the bank said in a report, adding that the aid-dependent country had benefited from low oil prices.

“Downside risks have been increasing, both externally and domestically,” Yoichiro Ishihara, the bank’s senior economist for Rwanda, said in a statement. “On the domestic front, delayed execution of the budget and inadequate financing for development are of concern.”

Rwanda is one of the economies in the region that investors have hailed for solid fundamentals, including low debt and inflation.

The growth rate averaged 8.2 percent from 2006 to 2012 in the landlocked state, which has become a favourite with international investors two decades after the 1994 genocide.

 

(Reporting by Clement Uwiringiyimana; Editing by Edith Honan and Hugh Lawson)

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African Development Bank approves $1.1 billion in loans to Tanzania

26 February 2016 Comments (0) Africa, Latest Updates from Reuters, Politics

DAR ES SALAAM (Reuters) – The African Development Bank (AfDB) has approved a loan package worth $1.1 billion to Tanzania to be paid out over five years to fund infrastructure projects and improve public sector governance, it said.

The line of credit will be used primarily to support the transport and energy sectors and improve the business environment in east Africa’s second-biggest economy.

The loans would support “transport and energy to promote domestic and regional transport connectivity and improve access to reliable, affordable and sustainable electricity,” AfDB said in a statement late on Thursday.

“The second pillar prioritises strengthening of financial management and improving the enabling environment for private sector investment and finance for sustainable job creation.”

The government plans to spend $14.2 billion to construct a new standard gauge rail network in the next five years financed with external loans. It also plans to build a new $10 billion port at Bagamoyo, expand existing airports and invest in new roads.

Tanzania, like its neighbour Kenya, wants to profit from its long coastline and upgrade existing rickety railways and roads to serve growing economies in the land-locked heart of Africa.

Tanzania boasts economic growth of 7 percent a year, yet it is largely driven by state investment and poverty remains stubbornly high.

It also has natural gas reserves that are estimated at more than 57 trillion cubic feet (tcf) and the central bank believes 2 percentage points would be added to its annual economic growth simply by starting work on a plant to process that would draw in billions of dollars of investment.

“Board members underscored the need for Tanzanian authorities to ensure that the country’s high GDP growth delivers robust economic transformation, poverty reduction and improved livelihoods,” AfDB said.

 

(Reporting by Fumbuka Ng’wanakilala; Editing by Toby Chopra)

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Tough year ahead for South African retailers as Massmart stalls

25 February 2016 Comments (0) Africa, Business, Latest Updates from Reuters

JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) – Massmart reported flat annual earnings on Thursday and highlighted the difficulties South African food retailers are likely to face this year as shoppers contend with rising prices, mounting debt and high unemployment.

The retailer, majority owned by Wal-Mart Stores Inc, earns 91 percent of its revenue in South Africa, an economy expected to grow by less than 1 percent this year.

The biggest worry this year is how inflation will affect the lowest income earners, Chief Financial Officer Hans van Lierop told Reuters.

Massmart, which also sells appliances and building materials to wealthier shoppers, supplies staples such as maize and rice in bulk to traders who sell them on to poor urban and rural consumers.

Though retailers absorb some of the cost increases, maize and sugar prices could climb by a double-digit percentage due to a severe drought in southern Africa, said Van Lierop.

Poorer South Africans spend a large part of their income on food and transport, so even when retailers do not pass on price increases they struggle to afford anything but essentials.

Massmart noted a slowdown in general merchandise sales toward the end of 2015 as business confidence sagged and the currency depreciated to new lows.

The rand has declined 20 percent against the dollar since October, offsetting gains for consumers from lower fuel prices.

“People are travelling less, less often and less far to go to shops,” said Chief Executive Guy Hayward in a presentation to analysts.

Basket sizes are smaller than a year ago, he added.

Rival Shoprite also noted the impact of transport costs on customers when it reported an 8.9 percent rise in half-year profit on Tuesday.

In some parts, shoppers increasingly prefer informal retailers to stores because it involves less travel, Shoprite Chief Executive Whitey Basson said then.

Low-income shoppers would struggle, Basson said, adding Shoprite could benefit as middle-income customers trade down.

Pick n Pay, a grocer focused on the middle and upper end of the market, on Thursday piloted a project to supply informal shops, called “spazas”.

The trial could be extended to hundreds of independent spaza owners if successful, it said.

Massmart posted diluted headline earnings per share (EPS) of 508.8 cents for 2015, compared with 504.7 cents in 2014.

Headline EPS is South Africa’s main profit gauge and strips out certain one-off items.

 

(Reporting by TJ Strydom; Editing by Stephen Coates and Mark Potter)

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IMF reviews Zimbabwe economy, eyes first new financing since 1999

25 February 2016 Comments (0) Africa, Latest Updates from Reuters, Politics

HARARE (Reuters) – The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has started talks with Zimbabwe’s government to review its economic performance, stepping up engagement as Harare seeks a financial aid package after years of isolation.

President Robert Mugabe’s government started defaulting on debts to the IMF, World Bank, African Development Bank and several Western lenders in 1999 – leading to a freeze in IMF assistance – and is struggling to emerge from a catastrophic recession that ran for a decade until 2008.

Without balance of payment support or foreign credit, Zimbabwe is running its budget hand-to-mouth, leaving it with virtually no money for infrastructure.

With formal unemployment above 85 percent, Zimbabwe has since December 2013 softened previously sacrosanct policies in the hope of gaining fresh loans. [nL8N12L1Q0]

At the same time, Western countries have eased sanctions imposed over alleged human rights abuses and vote fraud, looking beyond the rule of the 92-year-old Mugabe, Zimbabwe’s sole leader since independence in 1980.

An IMF team met government representatives on Wednesday under the final phase of a Staff Monitoring Programme, Christian Beddies, the IMF representative in Zimbabwe, told Reuters.

The team will also meet central bank officials and local business leaders before March 10.

“The team is also doing the annual Article IV consultation, which is an important ingredient in the re-engagement process,” Beddies said.

 

TARGETS MET

Zimbabwe started the SMP – an informal agreement with the IMF to monitor implementation of its economic reforms – in December 2013, and has met its targets.

These include softening provisions of its black empowerment law to attract foreign investment, making it easier for firms to lay off workers, and improving government financial accountability.

A senior treasury official said Zimbabwe hoped to begin negotiations this year on new financial aid, which will require it to tackle difficult reforms such as cutting the state wage bill, 82 percent of the national budget.

A parallel programme to clear $1.8 billion in external arrears would also be undertaken. [nL8N129142]

“We are working on the structure of a new financing programme from the IMF and we will soon present to them a country strategy paper on this and the economic reforms that will support the programme,” said the treasury official, who is involved in discussions with the IMF.

The worst drought since 1992 has left 3 million people facing hunger and Zimbabwe has appealed for nearly $1.6 billion to help pay for grain and other food. [nL8N15O44B]

Zimbabwe says it expects growth of 2.7 percent this year after 1.5 percent in 2015, but the World Bank says the economy will stagnate due to drought and weak commodity prices. [nL8N15I3CV]

Beddies has already said the IMF might resume aid to Zimbabwe this year if foreign creditors accept its plans to clear arrears and implement economic reforms. [nL5N11R2YV]

 

(By MacDonald Dzirutwe. Editing by James Macharia and Kevin Liffey)

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Eni steals march on East African LNG rivals with Mozambique plant approval

25 February 2016 Comments (0) Africa, Business, Latest Updates from Reuters

MILAN (Reuters) – Italy’s Eni said on Wednesday it has won approval from the Mozambique government to build its planned Coral floating liquefied natural gas plant.

The company, which aims to sell all the LNG from the plant to British oil company BP, is expected to make a final investment decision this year but has now overcome one of the biggest hurdles.

The pace of development of giant gas export schemes has slowed globally as liquefied natural gas prices have plummeted with oil prices, prompting many companies to delay funding decisions until business conditions brighten.

Eni is moving ahead in Mozambique despite the added challenge of using a relatively untested technology to ship the gas.

Its floating LNG (FLNG) export plant will be moored above the Coral gas field, containing 5 trillion cubic feet of gas, in resource-rich waters off Mozambique.

One of the world’s poorest countries, Mozambique is hoping to fuel future prosperity with revenue from an estimated 180 trillion cubic feet of offshore gas.

Eni’s plans include drilling six subsea wells and installing a floating LNG facility with a capacity of around 3.4 million tonnes per year.

Regional LNG rival Tanzania has struggled to match Mozambique’s pace of progress in getting its own fledgling industry off the ground, hamstrung by regulatory uncertainty and other factors.

Large latent capacity in the United States to export LNG at relatively low cost has also raised the competitive bar for what rival projects elsewhere in the world must do to attract customers, industry sources say.

LNG prices are around a quarter of what they were two years ago as a wave of new supply has overcome demand growth, depressing the market, with yet more supply on the horizon as the United States starts exporting.

Eni CEO Claudio Descalzi said approval of the Coral POD was a historical milestone for the development of the group’s discovery of 85 trillion cubic feet of gas in the Rovuma Basin.

“It is a fundamental step to progress toward the final investment decision of our project which envisages the installation of the first newly built FLNG facility in Africa and one of the first in the world,” Descalzi said.

Eni is the operator of Area 4 with a 50 percent indirect stake owned through Eni East Africa which in turn holds 70 percent of the Area.

U.S. energy company Anadarko Petroleum plans to build an onshore LNG export scheme in Mozambique, but is expected to lag Eni’s project.

 

(By Oleg Vukmanovic and Stephen Jewkes. Editing by Francesca Landini and Susan Fenton)

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South Africa announces austere budget to trim deficit, avoid downgrades

24 February 2016 Comments (0) Africa, Latest Updates from Reuters, Politics

CAPE TOWN (Reuters) – South Africa announced an austere budget on Wednesday aimed at avoiding cuts in its credit ratings, and vowed to focus spending on priority areas after weak economic growth reduced its revenue.

The measures may appease ratings agencies, which have said they might lower South Africa to sub-investment grade after President Jacob Zuma changed finance ministers twice in less than a week in December, casting doubt over Pretoria’s commitment to prudent fiscal policy.

Still, the package of spending cuts, civil service job freezes and moderate tax hikes on property sales, fuel, alcohol and capital gains may not go down well with voters ahead of municipal elections this year in which the ruling African National Congress faces a stiff challenge from the opposition.

“We cannot spend money we do not have. We cannot borrow beyond our ability to repay. Until we can ignite growth and generate more revenue, we have to be tough on ourselves,” Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan told parliament.

The tax hikes should help raise an additional 18.1 billion rand in revenue in 2016/17, he said.

Asked if the budget was enough to stave off ratings downgrades, Gordhan told ENCA news channel: “That’s what I hope.”

He said the economy may expand just 0.9 percent in 2016, down from a previous forecast of 1.7 percent and compared with estimated growth estimate of 1.3 percent in 2015.

It would be the lowest rate of growth since South Africa emerged from recession in 2009 and would reflect the impact of a severe drought and a sluggish global economy.

Growth has now fallen behind the rate of population increase, resulting in declining per capita incomes, the National Treasury said in a budget statement outlining spending plans for the next three years.

“In other words, the average South African is becoming poorer,” it said.

The rand extended losses over the lower growth forecast, trading 2.5 percent weaker to the dollar on the day.

“I would say the rand weakened so much immediately after the budget was released primarily because of the lack of sufficient reforms to tackle South Africa’s economic problems,” London-based EMEA analyst at 4cast Rajiev Rajkumar said.

“Whilst the lower projections for the budget deficit are a plus, ratings agencies previously said the country’s weak economy could be cause for further ratings downgrades to junk status.”

The cost of insuring exposure to South African debt via credit default swaps rose 17 basis points (bps), indicating investors’ disappointment with Gordhan’s budget.

 

NARROWER DEFICIT

Despite weaker growth, the government would still aim to reduce its budget deficit to 3.2 percent of GDP in the next fiscal year from 3.9 percent in the current 2015/16 period by tightening spending.

Fitch and Standard and Poor’s have South Africa on BBB-, just a step into investment grade. Any further cut would label them as junk status. The third main ratings agency, Moody’s, rates South Africa at Baa2, two notches above junk.

Moody’s said last week the drought risked tipping an already weak economy into recession as rising agricultural imports feed into rising inflation.

The Treasury said a credit downgrade to sub-investment grade, or “junk” status, could trigger a sharp reversal of capital flows and precipitate recession.

“In such an event, aggressive austerity measures would likely be required to restore public finances to a sustainable position,” it said.

The Treasury said it had cut government departments’ budgets for non-essential services, would borrow $4.5 billion from global markets over the next three years, and seek a minority equity partner after merging two of its state-owned airlines.

 

(By Stella Mapenzauswa and Olivia Kumwenda-Mtambo. Additional reporting by Wendell Roelf in Cape Town and Mfuneko Toyana in Johannesburg; Editing by James Macharia and Hugh Lawson)

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