By Karin Strohecker

LONDON (Reuters) – Governance across Africa has improved very little over the past decade as deteriorating safety and rule of law have held back progress made in other areas such as human rights or economic opportunities, a survey said on Monday.

The Ibrahim Index of African Governance (IIAG) – the most comprehensive survey of its kind on the continent – rates 54 African nations against criteria such as security, human rights, economic stability, just laws, free elections, corruption, infrastructure, poverty, health and education.

Mauritius held onto its top spot, followed by Botswana, Cape Verde, the Seychelles and Namibia while South Africa – the continent’s most industrialised country – was in sixth place.

While overall the index has improved by just one point over the 10 year period starting in 2006, three out of the top 10 countries have seen their score fall in this period, and major economies like South Africa and Ghana registered some of the largest deteriorations on the continent.

The survey found that almost half of Africa’s 54 countries recorded their worst score in the past three years in the Safety & Rule of Law category, which measures personal safety, national security as well as accountability and the judicial system.

“Today, current opinion focuses on the potential aftershock of deflating commodity prices and third term challengers to democracy…. What is striking is that these are not the areas which demand the most attention,” Sudanese telecoms businessman Mo Ibrahim wrote in the annual report which is compiled by his foundation and aimed at promoting better governance and economic development in Africa.

“All four components which make up Safety & Rule of Law have deteriorated…. This is holding back the continent’s progress and remains the biggest challenge to its future.”

Among the top 10 overall rated countries, six had deteriorated over the past decade in that category with South Africa registering the largest decline in what researchers called a “concerning negative trend”.

South Africa – the continent’s most industrialised country – had been teetering on the edge of recession, suffering from chronic power shortages and stubbornly high unemployment with voters increasingly frustrated with the country’s economic management under President Jacob Zuma and his ruling ANC party.

The last spot on the overall index was held by Somalia, which makes up the bottom five together with South Sudan, Sudan, the Central African Republic and Libya, which showed some of the most dramatic falls since descending into anarchy following the removal of Muammar Gaddafi in 2011.

ECONOMY

The category of Sustainable Economic Opportunity – looking aspects such as public management, business environment and infrastructure – had shown a slight improvement of 1.8 points.

The rise was driven by a jump in digital and IT infrastructure, the most improved indicator in the past decade across the whole index, while roads and transport also improved.

Yet other parts of the infrastructure, such as electricity, has worsened since 2006, with South Africa showing the largest drop of all countries, losing more than 30 points.

Chronic power shortages are one of the biggest obstacles to growth in countries across Africa, with a dearth of electricity or regular blackouts strangling industries.

“Forty percent of African citizens live in a country which has seen a deterioration and over half of Africa’s economy has been affected by this issue over the past decade,” the report found.

Looking at trajectories over the past decade, the report found that 32 countries – home to around half of Africa’s population – had seen their final score in 2015 falling below previous peak levels.

“There is still a long way to go. We need to be cautious and watch out for things that need to be addressed in order to make progress sustainable,” said Nathalie Delapalme, executive director of research and policy at the Mo Ibrahim Foundation

(Editing by Jeremy Gaunt)

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By Alex Lawler

LONDON (Reuters) – OPEC’s oil output is likely to reach its highest in recent history in September, a Reuters survey found on Friday, as Iraq boosted northern exports and Libya reopened some of its main oil terminals.

The increase comes despite lower output in top exporter Saudi Arabia and this week’s agreement by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries in Algeria to limit supply to support prices, its first such decision since 2008.

Supply from OPEC has risen to 33.60 million barrels per day (bpd) in September from a revised 33.53 million bpd in August, according to the survey based on shipping data and information from industry sources.

The rise in output could add to scepticism about OPEC’s ability to allocate its new production target of between 32.50 million and 33 million bpd, a task ministers left until a meeting in November. Oil rallied towards $50 a barrel on Thursday but was trading near $49 on Friday.

“The agreement still leaves hard and difficult negotiations for the individual caps to be set,” said Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at SEB.

“Now, with an OPEC curb on the cards for the first time in eight years, Brent crude is not even able to lift above $50. At least not yet.”

Supply has risen since OPEC in 2014 dropped its historic role of fixing output to prop up prices as Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Iran pumped more. Production has also climbed due to the return of Indonesia in 2015 and Gabon in July as members.

The membership changes have skewed historical comparisons. September’s supply from OPEC excluding Gabon and Indonesia, at 32.65 million bpd, is the highest in Reuters survey records starting in 1997.

In September, the increase was led by Iraq and Libya. Iraqi state oil firm SOMO and Iraq’s semi-autonomous region of Kurdistan began jointly exporting crude from the Kirkuk oilfield again. This lifted Iraqi supply to market to 4.43 million bpd in September, according to the survey.

In Libya, the National Oil Corporation opened three previously blockaded ports, allowing AGOCO, an NOC subsidiary that operates mainly in eastern Libya, to boost output. [L8N1C54J2]

Supply in Saudi Arabia has edged down from the record high reached earlier in the summer, sources in the survey said.

Supply in Iran, OPEC’s fastest source of production growth earlier this year after the lifting of Western sanctions, has held steady this month as output nears the pre-sanctions rate. Iran is seeking investment to boost supply further.

Angolan output slipped because the Plutonio field was shut for part of the month.

There was no sign yet of higher supply from Nigeria, where attacks on oil installations have cut output. Supply should rise in October if efforts for a restart of Qua Iboe and Forcados crude exports come to fruition.

The Reuters survey is based on shipping data provided by external sources, Thomson Reuters flows data, and information provided by sources at oil companies, OPEC and consulting firms.

(Reporting by Alex Lawler; Editing by Susan Thomas)

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JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) – Severe drought conditions are still afflicting most of South Africa and temperatures are expected to remain above normal until mid-summer, which would be around December, the national weather service said on Monday.

In its monthly forecast which looks up to five months ahead, the South African Weather Service also said there was a “gradual improvement” in prospects for above-normal rainfall by mid-summer. A scorching drought has hit key crops such as maize, fueling inflation and denting economic growth.

(Reporting by Ed Stoddard; Editing by Joe Brock)

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By Duncan Miriri

NAIROBI (Reuters) – Kenya’s removal of excise duty on locally assembled cars will boost the industry, but the government must make power supplies cheaper and address other concerns to draw more investment, the automobile industry association chief said on Thursday.

With little growth in mature markets, automakers are looking to tap into emerging African markets, but there is plenty of competition on the continent for where they might invest.

Kenya’s East African neighbour Ethiopia, for example, is building an assembly industry and boasts rapidly improving transport links and plentiful, cheap hydro-electric power.

Kenya currently mostly assembles trucks, pick-ups and buses from kits supplied by foreign manufacturers. Some 2,258 vehicles were assembled in the first four months of this year, the statistics office said.

However Volkswagen said this month it would resume car assembly in Kenya after closing a plant in the 1970s.

Rita Kavashe, the chairwoman of the Kenya Vehicle Manufacturers Association (KVMA), said scrapping excise duty offered an incentive to investors in Kenya, where economic growth of 6 percent a year is helping drive vehicle demand.

“We are anticipating now an increase in purchases of motor vehicles as a result,” she said, although the slow start to the year meant sales of both imported and locally assembled vehicles would be 14,000 in 2016 compared to 19,500 last year.

But she told Reuters the government had to address other issues that deterred manufacturers, by making electricity supplies cheaper and more reliable and improving efficiency at Mombasa port, a heavily congested regional trade gateway.

“Cost of electricity has not gone down at all … The cost is still very high in Kenya so that is a real challenge that needs to be addressed,” said Kavashe, who is also head of General Motors East Africa, a big assembler in Kenya.

Sales of locally assembled cars plunged 30 percent in the first six months of this year, partly due to the excise duty introduced in January at a flat rate of 150,000 shillings ($1,483) on each assembled vehicle.

The government reversed that decision this month saying it wanted to foster local assembly of vehicles, in which kits supplied by foreign brands are bolted together.

Kavashe said investors also needed reassurance about next year’s election in Kenya, a nation that has long suffered from political strife.

($1 = 101.1500 Kenyan shillings)

(Editing by Edmund Blair and Mark Potter)

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By Zakia Abdennebi

Tangier, MOROCCO (Reuters) – Morocco has signed an agreement that Boeing Co will seek to attract its suppliers to boost the kingdom’s aeronautics industry.

The “Boeing ecosystem” project aims to bring around 120 suppliers of the company to help raise Morocco’s aeronautics exports by $1 billion and create 8,700 jobs.

Boeing already has a joint venture with France’s Safran in Casablanca to build wire bundles and harnesses for aircraft makers, including Boeing and Airbus.

Tuesday’s agreement was signed in the royal palace of Tangier by Moroccan trade and industry minister Moulay Hafid Elalamy and the chief executive of Boeing’s airplane business, Raymond Conner. Moroccan King Mohammed attended the ceremony.

“Boeing will actively reach out to more than 120 suppliers in the near term to encourage this to happen,” Conner said during the ceremony.

Conner and Moroccan officials declined to give details or to say whether some of the suppliers have already commited to open new plants in the kingdom.

Unlike some other countries in the region, Morocco has managed to avoid a big drop in foreign investments since the global financial crisis and the Arab Spring uprisings of 2011, partly by marketing itself as an export base for Europe, the Middle East and Africa.

It has attracted some big auto and aeronautics investors in recent years, including Delphi, Bombardier and Eaton Corp.

It has already exported 5.7 billion dirhams ($590 million) of aircraft parts in the first eight months of 2016, which represent around of 3.5 percent of Moroccan exports. The aeronautics sector has been growing by around 7 percent annually.

Morocco expects auto industry exports to reach 100 billion dirhams a year by 2020 thanks to PSA Peugeot Citroen’s decision last year to build a factory slated to produce 200,000 vehicles a year. It expects the Peugeot plant to raise industry to 20 percent of domestic product (GDP) from 16 percent.

($1 = 9.6830 Moroccan dirham)

(Writing by Aziz El Yaakoubi; Editing by Ruth Pitchford)

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