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IMF reviews Zimbabwe economy, eyes first new financing since 1999

Comments (0) Africa, Latest Updates from Reuters, Politics

HARARE (Reuters) – The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has started talks with Zimbabwe’s government to review its economic performance, stepping up engagement as Harare seeks a financial aid package after years of isolation.

President Robert Mugabe’s government started defaulting on debts to the IMF, World Bank, African Development Bank and several Western lenders in 1999 – leading to a freeze in IMF assistance – and is struggling to emerge from a catastrophic recession that ran for a decade until 2008.

Without balance of payment support or foreign credit, Zimbabwe is running its budget hand-to-mouth, leaving it with virtually no money for infrastructure.

With formal unemployment above 85 percent, Zimbabwe has since December 2013 softened previously sacrosanct policies in the hope of gaining fresh loans. [nL8N12L1Q0]

At the same time, Western countries have eased sanctions imposed over alleged human rights abuses and vote fraud, looking beyond the rule of the 92-year-old Mugabe, Zimbabwe’s sole leader since independence in 1980.

An IMF team met government representatives on Wednesday under the final phase of a Staff Monitoring Programme, Christian Beddies, the IMF representative in Zimbabwe, told Reuters.

The team will also meet central bank officials and local business leaders before March 10.

“The team is also doing the annual Article IV consultation, which is an important ingredient in the re-engagement process,” Beddies said.

 

TARGETS MET

Zimbabwe started the SMP – an informal agreement with the IMF to monitor implementation of its economic reforms – in December 2013, and has met its targets.

These include softening provisions of its black empowerment law to attract foreign investment, making it easier for firms to lay off workers, and improving government financial accountability.

A senior treasury official said Zimbabwe hoped to begin negotiations this year on new financial aid, which will require it to tackle difficult reforms such as cutting the state wage bill, 82 percent of the national budget.

A parallel programme to clear $1.8 billion in external arrears would also be undertaken. [nL8N129142]

“We are working on the structure of a new financing programme from the IMF and we will soon present to them a country strategy paper on this and the economic reforms that will support the programme,” said the treasury official, who is involved in discussions with the IMF.

The worst drought since 1992 has left 3 million people facing hunger and Zimbabwe has appealed for nearly $1.6 billion to help pay for grain and other food. [nL8N15O44B]

Zimbabwe says it expects growth of 2.7 percent this year after 1.5 percent in 2015, but the World Bank says the economy will stagnate due to drought and weak commodity prices. [nL8N15I3CV]

Beddies has already said the IMF might resume aid to Zimbabwe this year if foreign creditors accept its plans to clear arrears and implement economic reforms. [nL5N11R2YV]

 

(By MacDonald Dzirutwe. Editing by James Macharia and Kevin Liffey)

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African tourism declines by 3 percent in 2015

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The number of tourist visits to North Africa drops eight percent while sub-Saharan Africa sees a one percent decline.

International tourist arrivals in Africa declined by three percent in 2015 but experts predict a revival this year.

The overall decline of arrivals on the continent was fueled by a drop of eight percent in North Africa, which accounts for about one third of all arrivals, according to the United Nations World Tourism Organization (WTO).

In sub-Saharan Africa, the decline for the year was only one percent and travel began to increase in the second half of the year.

The tourism organization said there were a total of 53 million tourist arrivals on the continent in 2015.

Global travel increased

The decline contrasts with other regions of the world that saw increases in international arrivals, including Europe, Asia and the Americas, which each rose by five percent, and the Middle East, which saw a gain of three percent after experiencing declines for years prior to 2014.

The drop in travel to Africa ended more than a decade of increases in tourist travel to the continent.

WTO Secretary-General Taleb Rifai predicted the number of arrivals this year will increase by two to five percent, driven by a rise in tourism. He said experts expect tourism to more than double to about 130 million arrivals per year by 2030.

One reason for optimism is that more visitors are coming from emerging economies in Asia and in Central and Eastern Europe. At the same time, fewer travelers are coming from China as its economy struggles.

Continent offers diverse attractions

Popular African attractions include the wildlife of Masai Mara in Kenya, Victoria Falls in Zimbabwe and Zambia, the pyramids of Egypt, Cape Town in South Africa, Marrakech in Morocco, the Omo River region of Ethiopia, the gorillas of the Virunga Mountains in Uganda, Rwanda and the Democtratic Republic of Congo, and Mount Kilimanjaro in Tanzania.

According to the African Development Bank, Morocco, Egypt, South Africa, Tunisia and Zimbabwe were the African countries with the most international visitors in 2014. It predicted that Algeria, Mozambique and Kenya soon would join the ranks of the most visited nations.

The report (pdf) estimated that there were a total of 65 million international arrivals in 2014. About half came from Europe, a total of 582 million travelers. Another 24 percent come from the Asia-Pacific region (263 million); 11 percent from North America (120 million). Smaller percentages come from Latin America, Africa and the Middle East.

In Egypt, 1.3 million tourism jobs

Egypt has the most direct employment in tourism at 1.3 million jobs, followed by Ethiopia with 980 million, Nigeria with 884 million, Morocco with 775 million and South Africa with 680 million.

The countries with the largest share of employment devoted directly to tourism are: Seychelles (24 percent), Cabo Verde (14 percent), Mauritius (11 percent), and Morocco and Tunisia (7 percent each).

The World Travel and Tourism Council estimates that travel and tourism and travel represents more than 8 percent of the gross domestic product of Africa and contributed about three percent of employment in hotels, airlines and other passenger transportation, as well as travel agents, restaurants and leisure industries.

Tiny share of global market

Africa holds a small share of the global market. Africa had 65.3 million arrivals in 2014, just fewer than 6 percent of the 1.1 billion tourist arrivals reported worldwide, the tourism monitor report said. Africa received a total of $43.6 billion in tourism revenue, about 3.5 percent of the global total.

While tourism in Africa was rising steadily until 2015, myriad challenges including lack of high airline prices, convenient transport, security concerns, threats to wildlife and lack of cooperation between nations, may be holding it back from even greater growth.

In North Africa, terror and civil strife sharply reduced the flow of tourists, while violence and the Ebola crisis scared many tourists away from the southern continent.

Security fears undermine tourism

Among major destinations, Kenya, Nigeria, Tunisia and Egypt have seen their tourism industries battered by security fears.

South Africa, Nigeria, Ghana and Uganda also saw significant drops in travel, according to one estimate.

The tiny West African country Mali has seen its tourist business collapse amid ongoing terrorist attacks and anti-government unrest.

From a peak of 200,000 visitors a year in 2011, Mali’s tourist trade has slowed to a trickle of a few thousands as numerous governments, including the United States, Britain, France and Australia, have issued travel warnings.

High number of travel warnings

Travel warnings can be a deterrent to tourism and Africa has seen a large share issued by the U.S. State Department. A 2015 analysis by Skift of 261 travel alerts issued or updated since 1996, found that 30 of 82 countries that had notifications were in Africa.

Algeria, Burundi and Congo, along with Afghanistan, had the most frequent updates.

Meanwhile, the African Union’s commissioner for transport and infrastructure recently urged representatives of African nations to adopt a more collaborative approach to increasing tourism to the continent.

“We can complement each other as African countries. We should work together to develop our institutional capacity and human resources to take it on the international level. So this is one of the areas we need to work on,” Elham Mahmoud Ahmed Ibrahim said.

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Eni steals march on East African LNG rivals with Mozambique plant approval

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MILAN (Reuters) – Italy’s Eni said on Wednesday it has won approval from the Mozambique government to build its planned Coral floating liquefied natural gas plant.

The company, which aims to sell all the LNG from the plant to British oil company BP, is expected to make a final investment decision this year but has now overcome one of the biggest hurdles.

The pace of development of giant gas export schemes has slowed globally as liquefied natural gas prices have plummeted with oil prices, prompting many companies to delay funding decisions until business conditions brighten.

Eni is moving ahead in Mozambique despite the added challenge of using a relatively untested technology to ship the gas.

Its floating LNG (FLNG) export plant will be moored above the Coral gas field, containing 5 trillion cubic feet of gas, in resource-rich waters off Mozambique.

One of the world’s poorest countries, Mozambique is hoping to fuel future prosperity with revenue from an estimated 180 trillion cubic feet of offshore gas.

Eni’s plans include drilling six subsea wells and installing a floating LNG facility with a capacity of around 3.4 million tonnes per year.

Regional LNG rival Tanzania has struggled to match Mozambique’s pace of progress in getting its own fledgling industry off the ground, hamstrung by regulatory uncertainty and other factors.

Large latent capacity in the United States to export LNG at relatively low cost has also raised the competitive bar for what rival projects elsewhere in the world must do to attract customers, industry sources say.

LNG prices are around a quarter of what they were two years ago as a wave of new supply has overcome demand growth, depressing the market, with yet more supply on the horizon as the United States starts exporting.

Eni CEO Claudio Descalzi said approval of the Coral POD was a historical milestone for the development of the group’s discovery of 85 trillion cubic feet of gas in the Rovuma Basin.

“It is a fundamental step to progress toward the final investment decision of our project which envisages the installation of the first newly built FLNG facility in Africa and one of the first in the world,” Descalzi said.

Eni is the operator of Area 4 with a 50 percent indirect stake owned through Eni East Africa which in turn holds 70 percent of the Area.

U.S. energy company Anadarko Petroleum plans to build an onshore LNG export scheme in Mozambique, but is expected to lag Eni’s project.

 

(By Oleg Vukmanovic and Stephen Jewkes. Editing by Francesca Landini and Susan Fenton)

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South Africa announces austere budget to trim deficit, avoid downgrades

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CAPE TOWN (Reuters) – South Africa announced an austere budget on Wednesday aimed at avoiding cuts in its credit ratings, and vowed to focus spending on priority areas after weak economic growth reduced its revenue.

The measures may appease ratings agencies, which have said they might lower South Africa to sub-investment grade after President Jacob Zuma changed finance ministers twice in less than a week in December, casting doubt over Pretoria’s commitment to prudent fiscal policy.

Still, the package of spending cuts, civil service job freezes and moderate tax hikes on property sales, fuel, alcohol and capital gains may not go down well with voters ahead of municipal elections this year in which the ruling African National Congress faces a stiff challenge from the opposition.

“We cannot spend money we do not have. We cannot borrow beyond our ability to repay. Until we can ignite growth and generate more revenue, we have to be tough on ourselves,” Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan told parliament.

The tax hikes should help raise an additional 18.1 billion rand in revenue in 2016/17, he said.

Asked if the budget was enough to stave off ratings downgrades, Gordhan told ENCA news channel: “That’s what I hope.”

He said the economy may expand just 0.9 percent in 2016, down from a previous forecast of 1.7 percent and compared with estimated growth estimate of 1.3 percent in 2015.

It would be the lowest rate of growth since South Africa emerged from recession in 2009 and would reflect the impact of a severe drought and a sluggish global economy.

Growth has now fallen behind the rate of population increase, resulting in declining per capita incomes, the National Treasury said in a budget statement outlining spending plans for the next three years.

“In other words, the average South African is becoming poorer,” it said.

The rand extended losses over the lower growth forecast, trading 2.5 percent weaker to the dollar on the day.

“I would say the rand weakened so much immediately after the budget was released primarily because of the lack of sufficient reforms to tackle South Africa’s economic problems,” London-based EMEA analyst at 4cast Rajiev Rajkumar said.

“Whilst the lower projections for the budget deficit are a plus, ratings agencies previously said the country’s weak economy could be cause for further ratings downgrades to junk status.”

The cost of insuring exposure to South African debt via credit default swaps rose 17 basis points (bps), indicating investors’ disappointment with Gordhan’s budget.

 

NARROWER DEFICIT

Despite weaker growth, the government would still aim to reduce its budget deficit to 3.2 percent of GDP in the next fiscal year from 3.9 percent in the current 2015/16 period by tightening spending.

Fitch and Standard and Poor’s have South Africa on BBB-, just a step into investment grade. Any further cut would label them as junk status. The third main ratings agency, Moody’s, rates South Africa at Baa2, two notches above junk.

Moody’s said last week the drought risked tipping an already weak economy into recession as rising agricultural imports feed into rising inflation.

The Treasury said a credit downgrade to sub-investment grade, or “junk” status, could trigger a sharp reversal of capital flows and precipitate recession.

“In such an event, aggressive austerity measures would likely be required to restore public finances to a sustainable position,” it said.

The Treasury said it had cut government departments’ budgets for non-essential services, would borrow $4.5 billion from global markets over the next three years, and seek a minority equity partner after merging two of its state-owned airlines.

 

(By Stella Mapenzauswa and Olivia Kumwenda-Mtambo. Additional reporting by Wendell Roelf in Cape Town and Mfuneko Toyana in Johannesburg; Editing by James Macharia and Hugh Lawson)

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South Africa guarantees Eskom’s power purchase agreements

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CAPE TOWN (Reuters) – Power purchase agreements between South African power utility Eskom and independent power producers (IPPs) are now categorized as contingent liabilities, adding about 200 billion rand ($13 billion)to government’s guarantee exposure from 2015/16, National Treasury said on Wednesday.

The government issues guarantees, which will amount to 467 billion rand at 31 March 2016, to several state-owned companies, with Eskom accounting for 74 percent of the total guarantee portfolio.

The portion of the guarantees that firms borrow against, known as the exposure amount, is a contingent liability and creditors can call on government to pay the debt should any default occur.

“The probability of default is low, since the regulator generally approves tariff increases that accommodate these agreements. However, significant deterioration in Eskom’s financial position may increase government’s risk exposure,” the Treasury said.

Exposure amounts are projected to increase to 258 billion rand at the end of March, from 226 billion rand in 2014/15, with Eskom accounting for most of the increase.

Africa’s most advanced but struggling economy is diversifying its energy mix away from an over-reliance on coal-power plants to include greener wind and solar projects.

A successful independent power producers program, started in 2010, is expected to provide 7,000 megawatts of energy with 47 projects fully operational by mid-2016, up from the 6,377 MW procured at the end of December.

Treasury reiterated on Wednesday that government’s plan for 9,600 MW of new nuclear power would continue “at a scale and pace that is affordable.”

Additional funding of 200 million rand was available in 2016/17 for transactional advisers and consultants on the nuclear programme.

Energy investment amounts to 70 billion rand this year and will be over 180 billion rand over the next three years as construction on Eskom’s Medupi, Kusile and Ingula power stations is completed, said Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan.

($1 = 15.3266 rand)

 

(Reporting by Wendell Roelf; Editing by Tiisetso Motsoeneng)

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South Africa’s Standard Bank sees FY profit up 30%

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JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) – South Africa’s Standard Bank said on Wednesday its full-year profit would rise by up to 30 percent higher, boosted by lower losses from discontinued operations outside Africa, sending its shares up.

Standard Bank said its diluted normalised headline earnings per share (EPS) will be between 20 percent and 30 percent higher for the 12 months to end-December from the previous year.

Headline earnings per share is the main profit gauge in South Africa and strips out certain one-off items.

Standard Bank last year completed the disposal of its controlling interest in its British unit, since renamed ICBC Standard Bank, to China’s ICBC, which also holds a 20 percent stake in the South African bank.

The previous year included the British unit’s loss of 3.7 billion rand which has narrowed substantially in the twelve months to end-2015, the company said.

Shares in Standard Bank were up 4.7 percent at 113.88 rand by 0748 GMT, compared to a 0.9 percent decline in the Johannesburg Securities Exchange’s Top-40 index.

 

(Reporting by TJ Strydom; Editing by James Macharia)

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Mali economic growth to rise to 6% in 2016

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BAMAKO (Reuters) – Mali’s economy will grow 6 percent this year, bolstered by agricultural and mining production, the ministry of economy and finance said on Tuesday, up from an expansion of 4.9 percent in 2015.

According to preliminary figures, the West African nation produced 8.04 million tonnes of grain this season, up from 6.98 million in 2014-2015, and 550,370 tonnes of cotton, an increase from 548,000 tonnes in 2014-2015.

“The prospects are good,” Oumar Diall, head of Mali’s forecasting and economic analysis division, told Reuters. “The growth performance will be particularly in agricultural cotton but also gold exports,” he added.

President Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta said last month that Mali produced 50 tonnes of gold in 2015 and hopes to produce more in 2016 as new mines comes online, though no specific forecast has been given.

The projected economic growth this year would represent a turnaround for Mali, one of the region’s leading cotton producers, whose growth slipped to 4.9 percent last year, down from 7.2 percent in 2014.

Malian government forces are embroiled in a conflict with Tuareg separatists in the north of the country. Although a peace deal was signed last June, mediators have struggled to enforce it and militants have continued to stage deadly attacks including at a hotel in the capital Bamako in November.

 

(Reporting by Tiemoko Diallo, writing by Edward McAllister; editing by Gareth Jones)

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Bank Turned Think Tank: Attijariwafa’s Newest Foray

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Attijariwafa-Bank

The African Development Club, launched in February by banking giant Attijariwafa, promises to be an exclusive club providing members with access to a platform connecting developers and investors.

Morocco’s largest bank, Attijariwafa, has recently announced a new development forum called the African Development Club. This club was created by the Casablanca-based institution to provide developers and investors with a platform for meetings and exchanges across the continent. Since January 25th, representatives from Africa’s biggest banks have crisscrossed the continent, presenting this new initiative to the leaders of Africa’s most substantial companies. Attijariwafa Bank is the largest bank on the continent in terms of branches: 3,400 outlets across the continent. The bank is often recognized for its ability to connect Morocco with greater Sub-Saharan Africa through trade relations. It is for this reason that Attijariwafa was able to create its own think tank.

Going Their Own Way

Attijariwafa Bank is more than 100 years old, has more than 6.8 million customers and employs more than 16,000 Africans across the continent. As part of the King of Morocco’s holding company, Attijariwafa has unprecedented access to Moroccan business opportunities–which is why Attijariwafa was so well equipped to launch this exclusive development group.

At the 2015 African Development Forum, hosted by Attijariwara Bank, Mohamed Kettani said that “South-South cooperation is vital. So we must create larger, cross-frontier trading spaces. We have to make the most of the mutualization and the complementarity of our resources and our economies. But we can’t do it without the North, because today in Morocco we are meeting international investors, from Europe, the US, and Asia, who are making Morocco a platform where part of the value is created in Morocco, another part in the North, and a third part in the countries south of Morocco.” Instead of waiting for change to happen, Kettani took matters into Attijariwara’s capable hands.

In December of 2015, the African Development Club was launched: Kettani promoted it as “an open African community whose purpose is to build an inter-priority network of decision makers and economic operators, development opportunities generator and reflections on trade and investment on the continent.” By creating a network of businesses, Attijariwafa is doing what many believe African governments have failed to do in the past: inspire real development through cross-continental economic ties, unhindered by the weight of political relationships. Perhaps unsurprisingly for a club developed by a financial institution, this club will only be open to those willing to pay.

Getting Down to Business

Attijariwafa Presences

Attijariwafa Presences

Mounir Oudghiri, director and general manager of Attijariwafa’s Senegalese subsidiary, explained the African Development Club as “a kind of Bluetooth, a private network open to those who want to be a part. This is an accelerator and integrator of mastering the best information possible to speed up the business.” The club gives access to more than 30,000 of Africa’s most influential business people. Not only will this group make use of its existing strengths, but it aims to provide vocational training for emerging business experts. Attijariwafa Bank prides itself upon its educational opportunities for its thousands of employees. As a self-designated pan-African bank, ensuring that all employees, from all backgrounds and regions, are up to par with their international counterparts is of the utmost importance. It stands to reason that Attijariwafa would similarly emphasize the importance of capacity building between and amongst club members.

The club will also provide its members with a database of potential connections in more than 180 countries and is primarily aimed at business leaders, the influential and the wealthy both inside and outside of Africa. Attijariwafa has strategic partnerships with several Chinese banks, and as China’s investment in Africa grows, this can only be a promising region of investment for the business savvy. By working across state borders to forge economic ties, members of the African Development Group will be able to draw upon the experience and various fields of expertise of their peers, thus giving way to a rich business environment.

Will it Work?

There are, of course, a variety of potential flaws to this plan: by requiring members to pay a fee to belong, budding entrepreneurs without the capital to cover the costs will be excluded. This threatens to widen the income gap between the wealthy elite, who will be members and thus have access to an enormous number of important individuals and businesses, and small businesses that have thus far been excluded from development. If the members of the African Development Club choose to invest in their communities–be it through a micro-lending program, infrastructure development or encouraging young people to stay in school with vocational training incentives–then this club could very well change the face of development in Africa.

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Kenya’s Mumias Sugar sees better second half, losses widens in H1

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NAIROBI (Reuters) – Kenya’s Mumias Sugar expected to perform better in the second half after posting a wider pretax loss for the six months ended Dec. 31, the company said on Tuesday, adding falling prices due to illegal imports could pose a challenge.

The heavily-indebted firm has been struggling with cash flow problems in recent years, forcing the government to step in with bailout funds and has hired a new chief executive, Errol Johnston, to drive its turnaround.

Mumias said losses widened to 2.26 billion shillings ($22.23 million) from a loss of 2.08 billion shillings in the year ago period, due to increased finance costs.

Finance costs nearly doubled to 732.6 million shillings from 378.7 million shillings in the six-month period ended Dec. 31, 2014, it said in a statement.

“During the six-month period, high interest rates coupled with a depreciated Kenya shilling adversely affected the company in terms of high cost of finance and foreign exchange losses,” it said.

“This coupled with high operating and administrative costs saw the company post a pretax loss … which is 9 percent higher than the … loss incurred during a similar period last year.”

The shilling hit lows last seen in October 2011 in late 2015, while interest rates peaked above 22 percent.

Mumias said net revenue for the period rose 11 percent from a year ago to 2.98 billion shillings, while administrative expenses shot up to 1 billion shillings from 820.9 million shillings.

Mumias – which also faced hurdles from raw material shortages and low sugar prices – said it was seeking an additional 2 billion shillings cash injection from the government.

Kenya has used high tariffs to protect its sugar farmers but the policy has encouraged smuggling of cheaper sugar imports.

It said loss per share widened to 1.04 shillings, from 0.95 shillings during the first half ending December 2014.

($1 = 101.6500 Kenyan shillings)

 

(Reporting by George Obulutsa; Editing by Biju Dwarakanath)

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Zimbabwe orders diamond mines shut, says not nationalising

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HARARE (Reuters) – Zimbabwe ordered diamond mining firms to stop operations immediately on Monday and leave the Marange fields as their licences have expired but denied the government was seizing the mines.

The diamond fields in the east of Zimbabwe near Mozambique are mined by nine firms. Eight, including two Chinese-run companies, are joint ventures 50 percent owned by the government and the other one is wholly owned by the state.

“The JV companies neglected or failed to renew the special (mining) grants. Some expired as far back as 2010 and others in 2013,” Mines Minister Walter Chidhakwa told reporters and executives from the mines in question.

“Since they no longer hold any titles, these companies were notified this morning to cease all mining activities with immediate effect,” he said, adding that Harare’s position was final and not negotiable.

Monday’s move follows months of wrangling between the mining companies and the government over its plans to merge the mines into one new entity to ensure efficiency and transparency, a proposal opposed by some of the firms.

Chidhakwa said the state-owned Zimbabwe Consolidated Diamond Company (ZCDC) will now hold all the diamond claims in the country, but said the state was not nationalising the mines.

“We are not expropriating. Remember the concession that we are taking does not belong to the company … it vests in the state. We are not touching the equipment, the bulldozers, the excavators, everything that you have put up remains your assets,” Chidhakwa said.

The latest move by President Robert Mugabe’s government could further tarnish the country’s image as a risky investment destination, with investors already unnerved by Mugabe’s drive to force foreign-owned firms to sell majority shares to locals.

“We have created a very unstable and threatening investment environment, no matter which sector you invest in Zimbabwe you will be interfered with,” said economic consultant John Robertson.

Zimbabwe was the eighth largest diamond producer in the world with 4.7 million carats in 2014, according to industry group Kimberly Process. Last year, the government received $23 million in royalties and other fees from diamond mines, down from $84 million in 2014.

Chidhakwa gave the firms, including Chinese-run Anjin and Jinan, 90 days to remove their equipment and said company officials now required government approval to access the mines.

He said companies in Marange had not fulfilled their investment promises and refused to be part of a new ZCDC, which was part of the reason why the government had to cancel the expired licences.

Robert Mhlanga, chairman of the largest mine in Marange, Mbada Resources, declined immediate comment on the move.

 

(By MacDonald Dzirutwe. Editing by James Macharia and David Clarke)

 

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