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Tunisia seeks to improve appeal to foreign investors

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tunis

A proposed investment code offers incentives to investment as the country aims to double investment to $2.5 billion by 2020.

Tunisian government officials hope to speed up implementation of a code that the North African nation hopes will make it more attractive to desperately needed foreign investment.

As its economy struggles in the aftermath of the 2011 revolution, Tunisia hopes to double foreign investment to $2.5 billion by 2020.

The Tunisian cabinet recommended hastening adoption of an investment code in February following protests a month earlier over high unemployment that included clashes with police in several towns and the capital of Tunis.

The protests were a grim reminder to the government that poor economic conditions, including high unemployment, prompted demonstrations that ended the 23-year presidency of Zine El Abidine Ben Ali during the 2011 revolution in Tunisia.

Incentives, smooth path for investment

The proposed investment code, which must be approved by the Tunisian parliament, is designed to clear administrative obstacles by creating an agency to smooth the way for companies to invest within the country, according to Yassine Brahim, Tunisian minister of development, investment and international cooperation.

The code will include financial incentives for investors, especially companies that intend to export from Tunisia and those that invest in poorer interior sections of the country.

It also will give international investors more flexibility to transfer funds out of the country, Brahim said.

Tax exemptions offered

Yassine Brahim

Yassine Brahim, Tunisian minister of development, investment and international cooperation.

Tunisia already offers significant incentives to potential investors, including a 10-year tax exemption, and, in some locations, state subsidies. The government also created industrial zones and promised significant investments in improving roads and other infrastructure.

The investment is sorely needed as the country struggles with an overall unemployment rate of 15 percent and a rate of 32 percent among college graduates. The country’s economy in 2015 grew by less than 0.3 percent.

Tunisia is generally seen as the one success story from Arab Spring, which also saw violent revolts in nearby Egypt and Libya.

However, Tunisia has struggled to form a government and improve its economy.

Civil unrest returns amid high unemployment

In January, economic conditions and regional inequalities prompted the worst civil unrest in the country since the 2011 revolution.

Protest that began in Kasserine in the central part of the country spread to several other towns and to Tunis, where shops were looted and burned. Frustrations ran highest in marginalized rural areas and in poor urban districts of the capital.

Tunisia also lost about a third of its tourism revenues in 2015 after two Islamic State attacks killed 59 foreign tourists.

Government proposes bond issue

In February, the government announced that it was preparing a bond issue of up to one billion euros to cover a budget deficit stemming from losses from January’s unrest.

Violence and unrest has kept investors away. An estimated 300 investors have left the country since 2011.

For example, one Bahraini official recently told Tunisian President Béji Caied Essebsi that Bahraini business leaders are interested in investing in the country and a delegation would visit from Bahrain.

However, Khaled Abderrahmen Al Moyed, president of the Bahraini Chamber of Industry and Commerce, also said the business leaders would require “sufficient guarantees” of success to launch projects in Tunisia.

Location, workforce are positives

The primary investment sectors in Tunisia are textiles, energy, computer science, corporate services and energy. The largest sources of investment are France, Austria, Canada and the United Kingdom.

An analysis by Santander Bank cited positives about investing in Tunisia, including its strategic location on the Mediterranean, proximity to major European capitals, a well developed social system, qualified workforce, competitive salary levels, and the increasing diversification of it economy. The main negative, Santander said, is a cumbersome Tunisian bureaucracy.

Brahim, the investment minister said Tunisia hopes to attract $1.4 billion in investment this year, an increase of 12 percent from $1.25 billion invested in 2015, with a goal of $2.5 billion by 2020.

That compares with investment of $2.2 billion in 2010, the year before the revolution.

Joblessness sparks unrest, support for IS

Despite Tunisia’s difficulties, foreign investment has been increasing in recent years.

In 2015, investment increased by 21 percent compared to 2014, which saw a 19 percent increase over 2014.

That growth hasn’t translated into enough jobs.

The economic conditions are believed to be driving many Tunisians into the ranks of Islamic State and other militant groups. An estimated 3,000 Tunisians are fighting in militant Islamic groups in Iraq, Syria and Libya.

Aymen Abderrahman, 28, a Tunis-based activist, said that “frustration and total despair” drove the January protests.

The unemployed who are living in the same conditions as before 2011 “are seeing a spark to bring back to life the revolutionary past,” he said.

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Rwandan economic growth to slow to 6.8% in 2016

Comments (0) Africa, Business, Latest Updates from Reuters

KIGALI (Reuters) – Rwanda’s economic growth rate will ease to 6.8 percent in 2016 from 7.1 percent in 2015, the World Bank said on Friday, noting the slow implementation of the country’s budget.

Rwanda maintained “steady growth and macroeconomic stability” for much of 2015, the bank said in a report, adding that the aid-dependent country had benefited from low oil prices.

“Downside risks have been increasing, both externally and domestically,” Yoichiro Ishihara, the bank’s senior economist for Rwanda, said in a statement. “On the domestic front, delayed execution of the budget and inadequate financing for development are of concern.”

Rwanda is one of the economies in the region that investors have hailed for solid fundamentals, including low debt and inflation.

The growth rate averaged 8.2 percent from 2006 to 2012 in the landlocked state, which has become a favourite with international investors two decades after the 1994 genocide.

 

(Reporting by Clement Uwiringiyimana; Editing by Edith Honan and Hugh Lawson)

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6 African, Middle East startups in global competition

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New ventures from South Africa, Morocco, Sudan, Saudi Arabia and Egypt will compete in the Get in the Ring final in March.

Six startups from Africa and the Middle East will compete in the world finals of Get in the Ring, a global competition that helps raise the visibility of new ventures and connects them with potential investors.

The six startups representing South Africa, Morocco, Sudan, Saudi Arabia and Egypt include delivery services, mobile applications and energy developers. They will compete in the Get in the Ring world final in Medellin, Columbia in March.

Get in the Ring is one of the world’s largest competitions for startups.

Contestants face off in a boxing ring to deliver 30-second pitches for their product or service and they are judged by investors and other experts. They are scored based on their business model and potential market, their team, their achievements and their financials.

Two South African startups win regional

Winners for the sub-Saharan region are two South African startups, Newtech Rail and iMORPH3D.

Newtech Rail has developed technology for railway overhead infrastructure. Jan Jooste, a South African industrial engineer and director of innovation at Vaal University of Technology, launched the startup in 2015.

iMORPH3D is a mobile application that enables users to create anamorphic 3D illusions. Android and Apple versions are available for download. It is a product of Adfire Creative M3dia.

Morocco, Sudan among winners

In the North African regional competition, held in Casablanca, Moroccan startup LIK and a Sudanese startup SmartDelivery emerged as the winners.

LIK from Morocco is a mobile application that gives users free phone credits in exchange for agreeing to display advertising on their smart phones when they receive calls. The ads are location-based and contextual based on age, gender, and language. Launched late last year, the app already has more than 100,000 users.

LIK at Level Up Competition

LIK at Level Up Competition

LIK found that its users were seeing advertising everywhere but were not realizing any benefit from viewing the ads. “With LIK, they can finally benefit,” Ismail Bargach said. He co-founded LIK with Omar Kadiri, and Yassine Faddani. The startup also won the Level Up Morocco competition last year in Casablanca.

The Sudanese startup SmartDelivery lets customers order fresh vegetables, fruit and meat via an app and it provides free delivery. It is able to charge lower prices because it buys directly from farmers and eliminates the middlemen. According to the company, the app enables efficient communication on customer orders.

Middle East winners

Vanoman from Saudi Arabia and SolarizEgypt won the Middle East regional competition.

Vanoman is a platform to connect truck drivers in Saudi Arabia with customers who want furniture transported. Fadi Almaghrabi, its CEO, represented the company.

SolarizEgypt designs and installs grid-connected PV solar power plants as a supplement for conventional types of power for industrial, commercial and residential customers. The company was launched by a group of graduates of the American University in Cairo.

Participants pitch their ventures

Get in the Ring brings entrepreneurs together to compete in local, national and regional competitions that winnow the field for the world finals, where they compete for funding of up to one million euros and investment dollars.

Along the way, participants received expert advice, coaching on their pitches and the opportunity to meet investors and develop a fan base.

“This event is not just about pitching for funding. It is also about pitching for attention’’ according to Brian Walsh, founder and chief executive officer of The REAL Success Network, one of the partners for the event. Walsh said the multiple rounds of competition expose them to thousands of potential funders and supporters.

Steven Cohen, head of event co-sponsor Sage One International, said Get in the Ring “is helping to encourage excellence and innovation among local businesses, and to provide role models and inspiration for the entrepreneurs of the future.”

In 2014, the South African startup GoMetro was a runner-up in the global finals.

Get in the Ring began in 2012 in the Netherlands and has grown rapidly into a major global event. Get in the Ring competitions are now held in more than 60 countries. Between 2012 and 2014, more than 3,000 startups participated.

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Tough year ahead for South African retailers as Massmart stalls

Comments (0) Africa, Business, Latest Updates from Reuters

JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) – Massmart reported flat annual earnings on Thursday and highlighted the difficulties South African food retailers are likely to face this year as shoppers contend with rising prices, mounting debt and high unemployment.

The retailer, majority owned by Wal-Mart Stores Inc, earns 91 percent of its revenue in South Africa, an economy expected to grow by less than 1 percent this year.

The biggest worry this year is how inflation will affect the lowest income earners, Chief Financial Officer Hans van Lierop told Reuters.

Massmart, which also sells appliances and building materials to wealthier shoppers, supplies staples such as maize and rice in bulk to traders who sell them on to poor urban and rural consumers.

Though retailers absorb some of the cost increases, maize and sugar prices could climb by a double-digit percentage due to a severe drought in southern Africa, said Van Lierop.

Poorer South Africans spend a large part of their income on food and transport, so even when retailers do not pass on price increases they struggle to afford anything but essentials.

Massmart noted a slowdown in general merchandise sales toward the end of 2015 as business confidence sagged and the currency depreciated to new lows.

The rand has declined 20 percent against the dollar since October, offsetting gains for consumers from lower fuel prices.

“People are travelling less, less often and less far to go to shops,” said Chief Executive Guy Hayward in a presentation to analysts.

Basket sizes are smaller than a year ago, he added.

Rival Shoprite also noted the impact of transport costs on customers when it reported an 8.9 percent rise in half-year profit on Tuesday.

In some parts, shoppers increasingly prefer informal retailers to stores because it involves less travel, Shoprite Chief Executive Whitey Basson said then.

Low-income shoppers would struggle, Basson said, adding Shoprite could benefit as middle-income customers trade down.

Pick n Pay, a grocer focused on the middle and upper end of the market, on Thursday piloted a project to supply informal shops, called “spazas”.

The trial could be extended to hundreds of independent spaza owners if successful, it said.

Massmart posted diluted headline earnings per share (EPS) of 508.8 cents for 2015, compared with 504.7 cents in 2014.

Headline EPS is South Africa’s main profit gauge and strips out certain one-off items.

 

(Reporting by TJ Strydom; Editing by Stephen Coates and Mark Potter)

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African tourism declines by 3 percent in 2015

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The number of tourist visits to North Africa drops eight percent while sub-Saharan Africa sees a one percent decline.

International tourist arrivals in Africa declined by three percent in 2015 but experts predict a revival this year.

The overall decline of arrivals on the continent was fueled by a drop of eight percent in North Africa, which accounts for about one third of all arrivals, according to the United Nations World Tourism Organization (WTO).

In sub-Saharan Africa, the decline for the year was only one percent and travel began to increase in the second half of the year.

The tourism organization said there were a total of 53 million tourist arrivals on the continent in 2015.

Global travel increased

The decline contrasts with other regions of the world that saw increases in international arrivals, including Europe, Asia and the Americas, which each rose by five percent, and the Middle East, which saw a gain of three percent after experiencing declines for years prior to 2014.

The drop in travel to Africa ended more than a decade of increases in tourist travel to the continent.

WTO Secretary-General Taleb Rifai predicted the number of arrivals this year will increase by two to five percent, driven by a rise in tourism. He said experts expect tourism to more than double to about 130 million arrivals per year by 2030.

One reason for optimism is that more visitors are coming from emerging economies in Asia and in Central and Eastern Europe. At the same time, fewer travelers are coming from China as its economy struggles.

Continent offers diverse attractions

Popular African attractions include the wildlife of Masai Mara in Kenya, Victoria Falls in Zimbabwe and Zambia, the pyramids of Egypt, Cape Town in South Africa, Marrakech in Morocco, the Omo River region of Ethiopia, the gorillas of the Virunga Mountains in Uganda, Rwanda and the Democtratic Republic of Congo, and Mount Kilimanjaro in Tanzania.

According to the African Development Bank, Morocco, Egypt, South Africa, Tunisia and Zimbabwe were the African countries with the most international visitors in 2014. It predicted that Algeria, Mozambique and Kenya soon would join the ranks of the most visited nations.

The report (pdf) estimated that there were a total of 65 million international arrivals in 2014. About half came from Europe, a total of 582 million travelers. Another 24 percent come from the Asia-Pacific region (263 million); 11 percent from North America (120 million). Smaller percentages come from Latin America, Africa and the Middle East.

In Egypt, 1.3 million tourism jobs

Egypt has the most direct employment in tourism at 1.3 million jobs, followed by Ethiopia with 980 million, Nigeria with 884 million, Morocco with 775 million and South Africa with 680 million.

The countries with the largest share of employment devoted directly to tourism are: Seychelles (24 percent), Cabo Verde (14 percent), Mauritius (11 percent), and Morocco and Tunisia (7 percent each).

The World Travel and Tourism Council estimates that travel and tourism and travel represents more than 8 percent of the gross domestic product of Africa and contributed about three percent of employment in hotels, airlines and other passenger transportation, as well as travel agents, restaurants and leisure industries.

Tiny share of global market

Africa holds a small share of the global market. Africa had 65.3 million arrivals in 2014, just fewer than 6 percent of the 1.1 billion tourist arrivals reported worldwide, the tourism monitor report said. Africa received a total of $43.6 billion in tourism revenue, about 3.5 percent of the global total.

While tourism in Africa was rising steadily until 2015, myriad challenges including lack of high airline prices, convenient transport, security concerns, threats to wildlife and lack of cooperation between nations, may be holding it back from even greater growth.

In North Africa, terror and civil strife sharply reduced the flow of tourists, while violence and the Ebola crisis scared many tourists away from the southern continent.

Security fears undermine tourism

Among major destinations, Kenya, Nigeria, Tunisia and Egypt have seen their tourism industries battered by security fears.

South Africa, Nigeria, Ghana and Uganda also saw significant drops in travel, according to one estimate.

The tiny West African country Mali has seen its tourist business collapse amid ongoing terrorist attacks and anti-government unrest.

From a peak of 200,000 visitors a year in 2011, Mali’s tourist trade has slowed to a trickle of a few thousands as numerous governments, including the United States, Britain, France and Australia, have issued travel warnings.

High number of travel warnings

Travel warnings can be a deterrent to tourism and Africa has seen a large share issued by the U.S. State Department. A 2015 analysis by Skift of 261 travel alerts issued or updated since 1996, found that 30 of 82 countries that had notifications were in Africa.

Algeria, Burundi and Congo, along with Afghanistan, had the most frequent updates.

Meanwhile, the African Union’s commissioner for transport and infrastructure recently urged representatives of African nations to adopt a more collaborative approach to increasing tourism to the continent.

“We can complement each other as African countries. We should work together to develop our institutional capacity and human resources to take it on the international level. So this is one of the areas we need to work on,” Elham Mahmoud Ahmed Ibrahim said.

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Eni steals march on East African LNG rivals with Mozambique plant approval

Comments (0) Africa, Business, Latest Updates from Reuters

MILAN (Reuters) – Italy’s Eni said on Wednesday it has won approval from the Mozambique government to build its planned Coral floating liquefied natural gas plant.

The company, which aims to sell all the LNG from the plant to British oil company BP, is expected to make a final investment decision this year but has now overcome one of the biggest hurdles.

The pace of development of giant gas export schemes has slowed globally as liquefied natural gas prices have plummeted with oil prices, prompting many companies to delay funding decisions until business conditions brighten.

Eni is moving ahead in Mozambique despite the added challenge of using a relatively untested technology to ship the gas.

Its floating LNG (FLNG) export plant will be moored above the Coral gas field, containing 5 trillion cubic feet of gas, in resource-rich waters off Mozambique.

One of the world’s poorest countries, Mozambique is hoping to fuel future prosperity with revenue from an estimated 180 trillion cubic feet of offshore gas.

Eni’s plans include drilling six subsea wells and installing a floating LNG facility with a capacity of around 3.4 million tonnes per year.

Regional LNG rival Tanzania has struggled to match Mozambique’s pace of progress in getting its own fledgling industry off the ground, hamstrung by regulatory uncertainty and other factors.

Large latent capacity in the United States to export LNG at relatively low cost has also raised the competitive bar for what rival projects elsewhere in the world must do to attract customers, industry sources say.

LNG prices are around a quarter of what they were two years ago as a wave of new supply has overcome demand growth, depressing the market, with yet more supply on the horizon as the United States starts exporting.

Eni CEO Claudio Descalzi said approval of the Coral POD was a historical milestone for the development of the group’s discovery of 85 trillion cubic feet of gas in the Rovuma Basin.

“It is a fundamental step to progress toward the final investment decision of our project which envisages the installation of the first newly built FLNG facility in Africa and one of the first in the world,” Descalzi said.

Eni is the operator of Area 4 with a 50 percent indirect stake owned through Eni East Africa which in turn holds 70 percent of the Area.

U.S. energy company Anadarko Petroleum plans to build an onshore LNG export scheme in Mozambique, but is expected to lag Eni’s project.

 

(By Oleg Vukmanovic and Stephen Jewkes. Editing by Francesca Landini and Susan Fenton)

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South Africa guarantees Eskom’s power purchase agreements

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CAPE TOWN (Reuters) – Power purchase agreements between South African power utility Eskom and independent power producers (IPPs) are now categorized as contingent liabilities, adding about 200 billion rand ($13 billion)to government’s guarantee exposure from 2015/16, National Treasury said on Wednesday.

The government issues guarantees, which will amount to 467 billion rand at 31 March 2016, to several state-owned companies, with Eskom accounting for 74 percent of the total guarantee portfolio.

The portion of the guarantees that firms borrow against, known as the exposure amount, is a contingent liability and creditors can call on government to pay the debt should any default occur.

“The probability of default is low, since the regulator generally approves tariff increases that accommodate these agreements. However, significant deterioration in Eskom’s financial position may increase government’s risk exposure,” the Treasury said.

Exposure amounts are projected to increase to 258 billion rand at the end of March, from 226 billion rand in 2014/15, with Eskom accounting for most of the increase.

Africa’s most advanced but struggling economy is diversifying its energy mix away from an over-reliance on coal-power plants to include greener wind and solar projects.

A successful independent power producers program, started in 2010, is expected to provide 7,000 megawatts of energy with 47 projects fully operational by mid-2016, up from the 6,377 MW procured at the end of December.

Treasury reiterated on Wednesday that government’s plan for 9,600 MW of new nuclear power would continue “at a scale and pace that is affordable.”

Additional funding of 200 million rand was available in 2016/17 for transactional advisers and consultants on the nuclear programme.

Energy investment amounts to 70 billion rand this year and will be over 180 billion rand over the next three years as construction on Eskom’s Medupi, Kusile and Ingula power stations is completed, said Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan.

($1 = 15.3266 rand)

 

(Reporting by Wendell Roelf; Editing by Tiisetso Motsoeneng)

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Sugar Refining in the Middle East Faces a Squeeze

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Al Khaleej Sugar

Middle Eastern sugar refining faces a squeeze as global demand and prices drop, and production capacity across the region rises

The UAE’s Al Khaleej sugar refinery sells to ICE Futures Europe

The expansion of Middle Eastern sugar refining has pushed one of the region’s leading producers to sell through the London Investment exchange, the first time a company from the region has done so in a decade. In a deal worth around $200 million, UAE-based Al Khaleej Sugar Company delivered just over 200,000 metric tons of white sweetener to ICE Futures Europe, which was bought in full by ED&F Man Holdings. But the move signals a difficult time for sugar refining in the Middle East.

Al Khaleej, which refines, produces, and distributes refined and raw sugar and sugar syrup, was founded in 1992, and was one of the first home-grown sugar refineries to see success in the Middle East. Importing raw sugar from Brazil and India, it has an annual output of around 1.8 million tons, and is one of the world’s largest sugar refiners. Although it may seem odd that one of the world’s leading sugar refineries is based in a region without the correct weather to produce its own sugar, the World Trade Organization’s decision to cap exports from the European Union in 2006, formerly the largest exporter of white sugar to the MENA region, left a huge gap in the market.

However, a decade later sugar prices have dropped, and there is a global sugar surplus, while consumer demand is weak. Al Khaleej’s rare move to sell through the ICE – at a time when it is operating at 70% capacity, well below its production capacity of around 2.5 million tons per year – has only underscored these concerns. As analysts comment, the London exchange is seen as a last resort buyer, signaling that there is not much of a market. Al Khaleej has said that where last year’s weak demand was compensated by high sugar premiums, the company is looking to 2016 with some trepidation.

Sugar refining capacity expands in Middle East

The choice to sell outside of the MENA physical market also highlights the excess refining capacity of the region itself. Inspired in part by the success of Al Khaleej during the 2000s, a significant number of new refineries have come onstream in recent years, notably in Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Sudan, Yemen, and Bahrain (which has the $150 million Arabian Sugar Company which produces 600,000 metric tons per year). The MENA region’s refining production is around 8.5 million tons, although its total capacity stands at around 13.5 million tons, and consumption is around 12-15 million tons.

Between 2016 and 2018, that capacity is expected to increase by around 4.7 million tons thanks to a stream of projects which were planned and approved before demand dropped. A new Al Reef Sugar Refinery is due to start operations in Jizan, Saudi Arabia by the end of 2017, with a planned refining capacity of 1 million tons annually. It also has plans to acquire land in East Africa to grow its own cane sugar crop in the long term. A second refinery in Saudi Arabia, the Durrah refinery, is also under construction, with a planned refining capacity of 750,000 tons.

Further refineries are also in development across the Middle East, including in Oman, where work on the Sultanate’s first ever sugar refinery, the $250 million Oman Sugar Refinery Company, has commenced, and in Algeria, where production has just started at a new refinery with a capacity of 350,000 tons per year. That figure will increase to 700,000 tons annually over this year to serve the domestic Algerian market which consumes 1.2 million tons a year. Bahrain, Yemen, and Iraq have also expanded their sugar refining capabilities in recent years.

Production outstripping demand

However, it is feared that this significant expansion will create a production capacity far in excess of forecast consumption. Indeed, it is estimated that processing capacity in the region will be producing a 6.1 million ton surplus by 2018.

In Saudi Arabia white sugar consumption is around 1.2 million tons annually, a figure already matched by the Saudi refinery, United Sugar Company (a subsidiary of the Savola Group). The two further refineries currently under development in the Kingdom will push production capacity to saturation, especially considering that United is already operating at a loss and has plans to expand its annual capacity by 500,000 tons by 2017. Similarly in Oman, a new refinery with a planned annual capacity of 700,000 tons seems unnecessary in a country that consumes only 100,000 tons a year. Like Iraq, many countries across the Middle East are now self-sufficient. So as raw sugar futures drop to a three and a half year low, Middle Eastern sugar refining should be expecting a squeeze.

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South Africa’s Standard Bank sees FY profit up 30%

Comments (0) Africa, Business, Latest Updates from Reuters

JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) – South Africa’s Standard Bank said on Wednesday its full-year profit would rise by up to 30 percent higher, boosted by lower losses from discontinued operations outside Africa, sending its shares up.

Standard Bank said its diluted normalised headline earnings per share (EPS) will be between 20 percent and 30 percent higher for the 12 months to end-December from the previous year.

Headline earnings per share is the main profit gauge in South Africa and strips out certain one-off items.

Standard Bank last year completed the disposal of its controlling interest in its British unit, since renamed ICBC Standard Bank, to China’s ICBC, which also holds a 20 percent stake in the South African bank.

The previous year included the British unit’s loss of 3.7 billion rand which has narrowed substantially in the twelve months to end-2015, the company said.

Shares in Standard Bank were up 4.7 percent at 113.88 rand by 0748 GMT, compared to a 0.9 percent decline in the Johannesburg Securities Exchange’s Top-40 index.

 

(Reporting by TJ Strydom; Editing by James Macharia)

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Mali economic growth to rise to 6% in 2016

Comments (0) Africa, Business, Latest Updates from Reuters

BAMAKO (Reuters) – Mali’s economy will grow 6 percent this year, bolstered by agricultural and mining production, the ministry of economy and finance said on Tuesday, up from an expansion of 4.9 percent in 2015.

According to preliminary figures, the West African nation produced 8.04 million tonnes of grain this season, up from 6.98 million in 2014-2015, and 550,370 tonnes of cotton, an increase from 548,000 tonnes in 2014-2015.

“The prospects are good,” Oumar Diall, head of Mali’s forecasting and economic analysis division, told Reuters. “The growth performance will be particularly in agricultural cotton but also gold exports,” he added.

President Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta said last month that Mali produced 50 tonnes of gold in 2015 and hopes to produce more in 2016 as new mines comes online, though no specific forecast has been given.

The projected economic growth this year would represent a turnaround for Mali, one of the region’s leading cotton producers, whose growth slipped to 4.9 percent last year, down from 7.2 percent in 2014.

Malian government forces are embroiled in a conflict with Tuareg separatists in the north of the country. Although a peace deal was signed last June, mediators have struggled to enforce it and militants have continued to stage deadly attacks including at a hotel in the capital Bamako in November.

 

(Reporting by Tiemoko Diallo, writing by Edward McAllister; editing by Gareth Jones)

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