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Ghana’s new government says it will review $918 million IMF deal

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By Kwasi Kpodo

ACCRA (Reuters) – Ghana’s new government plans to review its $918 million programme with the International Monetary Fund because it may need more money for its spending plans, a minister-designate said on Friday.

The three-year programme, signed by the previous government in April 2015, imposes strict targets for revenue collection and spending. It aims to reduce inflation, the public debt and the budget deficit and restore rapid growth to Ghana’s economy.

President Nana Akufo-Addo won December’s election in part by promising voters he would give the equivalent of $1 million to each constituency per year for development, build a dam in every village and a factory in every district while cutting taxes.

“It (the IMF programme) must be reviewed. It will certainly be reviewed,” Yaw Osafo-Maafo told a parliamentary committee vetting him as senior minister. The programme “squeezes the fiscal space” and would be reviewed with the IMF, he said.

Economists say the Fund cannot change its overall programme objectives but interim targets can be modified in the light of performance between each IMF review. As a result, the new government could negotiate less onerous conditions if it finds that targets set for the end of 2016 were not met.

In an indication that this may happen, the new government says the budget deficit stood at around 8 percent at the end of 2016, higher than the 5.3 percent targeted under the programme.

The Bank of Ghana will likely cut benchmark interest rates by 50 basis points to 25 percent on Monday because of the fiscal deficit overshoot and recent pressure on the cedi currency, said a research note by Standard Chartered.

The government will also restore central bank financing of the deficit, Osafo-Maafo said. Under the IMF programme, Ghana was supposed to present a bill for zero deficit financing from 2015 but parliament instead passed a law allowing 5 percent financing.

“It (the law) was unnecessary and it will be reviewed,” Osafo-Maafo, a former finance minister said.

He said the government will continue to borrow “in a better way” to refinance debt, which stands at 71.8 percent of gross domestic product.

The government says it will maintain fiscal discipline and give Ghana double-digit growth for each of the four years of its term in office. Ghana’s main exports are cocoa, gold and oil.

“The economy is not in the best of shape but it (the growth target) is doable,” Osafo-Maafo said.

(Editing by Matthew Mpoke Bigg/Mark Heinrich)

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S.Africa economy poised for growth, stable repo rate in 2017

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By Vuyani Ndaba

JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) – South Africa’s economy will get a boost from perkier commodity prices, a benign inflation outlook and better rains for the agriculture sector this year, a Reuters poll found on Thursday.

A median of 27 economists in a poll taken over the past week suggested growth in South Africa would accelerate to 1.1 percent this year and 1.6 percent next year.

The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) estimated GDP expanded 0.4 percent last year.

“Higher commodity prices in combination with lower inflation, stable interest rates and a recovery in the agricultural sector should drive 2017 growth somewhat stronger than in 2016,” said Elize Kruger at NKC African Economics.

Twelve of 14 economists bet that growth in Africa’s most industrialised nation has left the slow expansion trap seen in previous quarters.

South Africa’s growth has been choppy in the past two years, with negative quarterly performances three different times on an annualised basis since 2014.

However, KPMG’s Christie Viljoen says positive growth is expected , though it will be very low.

Economists back their claims with the annualised growth rate in the SARB’s leading indicator that has turned positive, but they caution about the risks that lie ahead.

South Africa’s economy relies heavily on the well-being of the euro zone, its biggest trading partner as a single region, and China, its biggest trading partner as a single country.

 

STABLE RATES

Consumption should get a boost if the Reserve Bank does not hike interest rates this year. All 27 economists expect the repo rate to be kept on hold at 7.0 percent in the Reserve Bank’s meeting on January 24 (not 26).

Medians for the rest of the year suggest no change for the repo rate after Tuesday’s (not Thursday) policy announcement. There is just over a one-in-three chance of a cut this year.

“The bank may still have a change of heart in its rate stance come the second half of this year, opening up room for it to cut policy rates later in the year,” said BNP Paribas economist Jeffrey Schultz.

Still, consumer inflation is expected to slow to an average of 5.8 percent for this year – 0.2 percentage points shy of the Reserve Bank’s top-end comfort level – and 5.5 percent in 2018. It hit a 6.4 percent average last year.

 

(Editing by Tom Heneghan)

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Egypt’s Suez Canal revenues fall to $5 bln in 2016 from $5.175 bln in 2015

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CAIRO (Reuters) – Egypt’s Suez Canal revenues fell to $5.005 billion in 2016 from $5.175 billion the previous year, Reuters calculations showed on Thursday.

A government website published earlier on Thursday data showing the revenues reached $414.4 million for the month of December.

 

(Reporting by Ehab Farouk, Writing by Lin Noueihed, editing by Larry King)

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Togo reaches provisional deal with IMF for $238 mln programme

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ABIDJAN (Reuters) – Togo has reached an agreement with the International Monetary Fund for a three-year programme that could, subject to board approval, be supported by a $238 million loan package, the IMF said in a statement on Wednesday.

“The agreed economic program … aims to improve the living conditions for the population and to maintain a stable macroeconomic environment that is compatible with public debt sustainability,” the statement said.

 

(Reporting by Joe Bavier; Editing by Sandra Maler)

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EU grants Zambia $69 mln for energy projects

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LUSAKA (Reuters) – The European Union (EU) has given Zambia about $69 million to expand electricity supply in the continent’s second biggest copper producer, which faces a power deficit that has hit mining and agriculture.

In a statement, the EU said the grant would fund projects to provide access to reliable and affordable electricity to at least 63,000 households and small businesses.

The southern African nation is struggling to maintain power supplies as a severe drought has caused levels to drop in the Kariba Dam which generates much of the nation’s electricity.

The economy grew just over 3 percent last year, partly due to power shortages.

($1 = 0.9438 euros)

 

(Writing by Mfuneko Toyana; Editing by James Macharia)

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South Africa consumer confidence slips as growth concerns weigh

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JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) – South Africa’s consumer confidence slipped deeper into negative territory in the fourth quarter of last year, highlighting households’ concerns about the weak outlook for the economy, a survey showed on Thursday.

The consumer confidence index, sponsored by First National Bank (FNB) and compiled by the Bureau for Economic Research, slumped to -10 in the fourth quarter after registering -3 in the third quarter.

“The peaceful, free and fair completion of the municipal elections in early August, as well as the final outcome, may also have raised the confidence levels – or expectations for the future – of some consumers,” FNB senior economic analyst Jason Muscat said.

“However, the election boost to confidence likely faded during the fourth quarter, and the economic realities of weak household income growth, poor credit extension and soaring food prices once again exerted downward pressure during the festive season.”

 

(Reporting by Olivia Kumwenda-Mtambo; editing by Richard Lough)

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Kenyan supermarket chain Nakumatt agrees stake sale to fund for $75 mln

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NAIROBI (Reuters) – Privately-owned Nakumatt, Kenya’s biggest supermarket chain by sales, has agreed to sell a 25 percent stake to a foreign fund for $75 million, part of an effort to bolster its balance sheet and pay off debts, its managing director said on Wednesday.

Nakumatt, which started with a single store in Nairobi in 1992, operates 68 outlets in Kenya and neighbouring states Rwanda, Uganda and Tanzania.

The growing economies of East Africa have drawn in foreign retailers including Bostwana’s Choppies, South Africa’s Game Stores and French retailer Carrefour, through its Dubai-based franchisee Majid al-Futtaim.

“We are already at final stages with the investor. We are just waiting for the money to come,” Atul Shah told Reuters, without naming the fund involved.

The deal is part of the chain’s plan to overhaul its balance sheet and restructure a $75 million debt tranche owed to four local banks, Shah said. Expansion and other investments have pushed its debt up overall to $150 million.

“Nakumatt is going through some financial stress. We are out looking for funds and we are restructuring,” Shah said, adding the cash was expected before the end of February and would help the firm extend the tenor of its debts to more than five years.

“It stabilises our cash flow and it also gives a little room for the expansion plan that we have in place,” he said.

Nakumatt is being guided by a Dubai-based transaction adviser that Shah did not name. The equity deal with the foreign fund values the business at $300 million.

“It is a fair valuation,” Shah said, noting the business had expanded from a single small store to a regional network in 24 years.

 

(Reporting by Duncan Miriri; Editing by Edmund Blair and Mark Potter)

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Western Sahara’s Polisario to test EU court ruling on oil shipment

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ALGIERS (Reuters) – Western Sahara’s Polisario independence movement said it will ask EU and French authorities to seize the cargo of a ship it accused of illegally transporting marine oil from the Moroccan-controlled part of the disputed territory.

The case could break new legal ground in the long-running conflict over the desert region, where Polisario has declared an independent state, but which has been claimed by Morocco as part of its kingdom.

Mhamed Khadad, Polisario’s secretary for foreign affairs, said the oil shipment violated a ruling from the European Court of Justice last month that, for the purposes of two trade deals between the European Union and Morocco, said the territory of the latter did not include Western Sahara.

He said as an “occupying force”, Morocco had no right to issue export licences. The Moroccan foreign ministry declined to make any immediate comment.

Polisario said on its Sahara Press Service that it would file its complaint with the European Commission and French customs, “denouncing the illegal shipment of marine oil by a European tanker, Key Bay, from occupied Western Sahara’s town”, referring to Laayoune in the Moroccan-controlled area.

Western Sahara, which has significant phosphate reserves and offshore fishing, has been contested since 1975 when Spain, the former colonial power, withdrew. Morocco fought a 16-year war with Polisario, which established a self-declared Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic.

Responding to an escalation in tension, U.N. peacekeeping observers have been deployed since August between Moroccan Royal Gendarmerie personnel and a unit of Polisario fighters facing off in a narrow strip of buffer zone between the two sides.

 

(Reporting by Patrick Markey; Editing by Mark Trevelyan)

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Exclusive – Nigeria’s efforts to secure international loans hit deadlock: sources

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By Paul Carsten, Ulf Laessing and Sujata Rao

ABUJA/DAVOS, Switzerland (Reuters) – Nigeria’s efforts to secure funds from international lenders to help haul it out of recession have stalled because it has not submitted the required economic reform plans, according to one of the banks and sources close to the matter.

The government has been in loan talks with the World Bank for a year. It had told the lender it would present its proposed reforms to make the economy more resilient and attractive to investment by the end of December, according to Western diplomats and a Nigerian official who declined to be named as they are not authorised to speak publicly.

But this has not happened and as a result of the delay, which the government has not explained, the Washington-based bank has not been able to consider a loan yet, the sources said.

Nigerian Finance Minister Kemi Adeosun declined to comment.

The African Development Bank (AfDB), meanwhile, is holding back the second tranche of a $1 billion loan for Nigeria, AfDB president Akinwumi Adesina told Reuters on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.

“We are waiting for the economic policy recovery programme and the policy framework for that,” said Adesina, without specifying when the AfDB had expected to receive the reform plans.

The World Bank told Reuters in an email that Nigeria was currently preparing its plan “on the basis of which the World Bank will determine with the government the most appropriate lending instrument to support the implementation of the reform plan”.

Nigeria has said it is seeking to borrow $4 billion in total from the World Bank and other foreign institutions and $1 billion through Eurobonds to plug a yawning budget deficit and fund badly needed infrastructure projects.

The country, which relies on oil revenue for most of its income, has been hit hard by the sharp fall in crude prices since 2014 and is struggling to drag itself out of its first recession in 25 years.

It is unclear why the government has not submitted reform plans to the international lenders. The funding deadlock could throw into doubt badly needed infrastructure projects planned for this year, including new roads and improvements to power infrastructure.

The failure to secure the funds, and to present a reform programme, could also deter some investors from Nigeria’s planned $1 billion Eurobonds sale in March.

A Nigerian financial source said the government was working with a consultancy on putting together a package of proposed reforms. The source, who declined to be named as the matter is confidential, did not elaborate.

 

RECORD BUDGET

Nigeria needs money to help plug a budget deficit of 2.2 trillion naira ($7 billion) for 2016 and to help fund a record budget of 7.3 trillion naira for 2017 which is aimed at stimulating the economy.

It has been holding talks with various institutions and China over the last year to borrow funds but apart from a $1 billion loan from the African Development Bank, at a rate of 1.2 percent, nothing has been made public.

The Abidjan-based AfDB has paid out an initial $600 million in November but is awaiting the economic reform proposals before it disburses the rest of the money.

It is unclear how much money Nigeria is seeking from the World Bank, or whether the lender was pushing for any specific economic reforms from the government.

The diplomatic sources, however, said the bank wanted to see how Nigeria planned to lower its dependence on oil revenues and boost investment, which has been hit by a high official exchange rate for the naira currency.

Nigeria’s central bank, backed by President Muhammadu Buhari, has kept the naira rate to the dollar at 40 percent above the unofficial – or parallel – market rate, which has dried up dollar supplies on official channels.

The policy has also made investors reluctant to commit new projects as they expect the central bank will have to devalue the naira eventually as oil production has been hit by an insurgency in the Niger Delta oil hub.

The central bank has also imposed hard currency curbs making impossible the import of almost 700 goods, which has forced dozens of plants to close running out of spare parts.

Adesina told Reuters on Tuesday that the currency rate problem needed to be addressed by the government in its reform programme, which he said the AfDB was coordinating with the World Bank.

“We are being clear that the quantitative restriction in terms of access to FX is what’s creating huge gap between parallel market rates and official rates,” he added.

($1 = 314.5000 naira)

 

(Reporting by Paul Carsten and Ulf Laessing in Abuja and Sujata Rao in Davos, Switzerland; Additonal reporting by Chijioke Ohuocha in Lagos; Editing by Pravin Char)

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South Africa’s Eskom signs deal with municipalities over unpaid bills

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JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) – South African power utility Eskom has signed agreements with 21 of the 34 defaulting municipalities to recoup unpaid bills worth 10.2 billion rand ($757 million) and ease the pressure on businesses, the firm said on Tuesday.

The scheduled power interruptions in Africa’s most industrialised economy could negatively impact business and industries that rely on power in municipalities located in some of the key provinces in the country.

“Municipalities need to make arrangements or they will have to face the repercussions of having power interruptions,” Eskom’s spokesman Khulu Phasiwe told Reuters.

The state-owned power utility said in a statement it was within its power to cut electricity completely according to the Electricity Regulations Act and municipality supply agreements but will only implement scheduled disruptions.

Poultry producer Astral Foods, which has also been hit by drought-induced high feed prices and from an over-supplied domestic market, said earlier this week it could come under further pressure if Eskom carries out the interruptions in a district where some of its operations are located.

“If it’s a permanent power cut we would have to euthanise all 11.5 million birds,” Astral’s managing director of agriculture Gary Arnold told Reuters.

($1 = 13.4700 rand)

 

(Reporting by Tanisha Heiberg; Editing by James Macharia and Louise Heavens)

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